Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1033 am EDT Sat Jul 23 2016
Very little in the way of changes made to the forecast for today.
Scattered convection continues off shore at this hour in response
to a broad, weak surface low that is evident on the latest
visible satellite loop. Convection inland is expected to increase
after 18z, with the sea-breeze being the main driver of convection
again today. Overall, less coverage is expected again today with
north/northeasterly upper level flow in place, favoring a less
active sea-breeze regime. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected to remain mostly confined to the Florida Panhandle today this
afternoon, with the best chances generally west of tlh. Despite a
drier airmass across northern and eastern portions of the area,
isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible inland across
our Georgia counties, as a weak surface trough was in place east of the
area per 12z surface analysis. As was the case yesterday, the
chance of severe weather is low, with only the strongest storms
that develop capable of producing isolated instances of high wind
High temps will generally be in the mid 90s with heat indices
ranging from 100-105f.
Previous discussion [725 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
area remains on the eastern side of an upper level ridge, but there
is some weakening across the County Warning Area as an upper low nears the eastern
coast of Florida this evening. The seabreeze will remain the main
driving force behind convection today and given this have confined
the higher pop chances across Florida and portions of southern
Georgia and Alabama. While convection will likely be ongoing across
the marine area this morning, the better chance of initiation over
land will be after 18z. Overall may see a similar day to yesterday
with potentially slightly less coverage across the eastern area
where pws indicate a slightly drier airmass (still enough moisture
for convection though).
Maximum temperatures will mainly be in the mid 90s again with
isolated areas of Georgia reaching the upper 90s. Heat indicies will
reach the 100-105 range.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
a weak upper level disturbance east of the Florida Peninsula will
drift westward on Sunday. With this feature approaching and the
mid level ridge weakening, expect better shower and thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon, especially across the Florida Panhandle
and into southeastern Alabama. By Monday, as the upper level
disturbance drifts further west, expect afternoon thunderstorms to
return to a more typical pattern under light southerly flow, with
the best coverage along and south of I-10.
Afternoon high temperatures won't be as warm the next couple of
days due in part to all the expected convection as highs are
expected to only be in the low to mid 90s.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that ridging aloft will
begin to build back over the region by Wednesday. With the ridge
in place, rain chances from Wednesday through the end of the
period should be below normal in the afternoon hours. Pops only in
the 20 to 30 percent range are in this portion of the forecast.
With the ridge returning and lower rain chances, high
temperatures should be on the increase by the latter portion of
the period, with some locations topping out in the upper 90s.
Aviation [through 12z sunday]...
VFR conditions expected through the taf period outside of
scattered thunderstorms and rain this afternoon. The best chances for any of this
activity will mainly remain confined to coastal taf sites this
afternoon. Gusty winds and erratic winds, heavy rain and briefly
reduced vsbys will be possible in and around any thunderstorms and rain.
light winds and low seas are expected for the next several days.
An approaching upper level disturbance will increase thunderstorm
chances across the area on Sunday. A more typical summertime
pattern will return by Tuesday with thunderstorms becoming more
with relative humidity values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.
another day of lower thunderstorm coverage suggests little or no
flood concerns today. On Sunday, an approaching upper level
disturbance should help increase thunderstorm coverage. With
relatively light steering flow, some localized flooding is
possible with these storms, especially across the Florida
Panhandle. However, there are no widespread flood concerns at this
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 95 75 93 74 94 / 30 10 40 20 30
Panama City 92 78 88 78 89 / 30 20 50 20 40
Dothan 95 74 94 73 93 / 20 10 40 20 50
Albany 97 74 96 74 95 / 20 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 96 73 95 72 95 / 20 20 40 30 30
Cross City 93 74 93 73 95 / 20 20 40 40 30
Apalachicola 90 78 89 77 89 / 30 20 50 30 30