Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 230759
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
359 am EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Near term [through today]...
Surface cold front, analyzed just off the Florida coast, will
continue to slowly push southward and dissipate later today. A
moist, easterly flow will set up today with generally mostly cloudy
to cloudy skies. Moisture is fairly shallow and below 10000 feet so
will keep silent 10 pop in the forecast today. Wouldn't be surprised
to get a few sprinkles here or there but won't amount to much. With
the persistent cool easterly wind of 10-15 mph and cloudy skies,
expect temperatures mainly in the upper 60s across southeast Alabama and SW
Georgia with low 70s across northern Florida.
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
In the upper levels a cut-off low over the Great Plains will move
into the Midwest by Saturday. A trough will approach the region in
the late afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. At the surface a
low will be over Illinois/MO on Saturday. The associated cold front will
not make it this far south. The best chance for rain will be late
afternoon and evening on Saturday as the trough approaches. Pops
up to 40 percent are forecast in western portions of the region.
Thunderstorms are possible with moderate 0-6km shear and dew
points in the lower 60s. However, cape will be low. Lows will be
in the 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs
on Saturday will be near 80.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
In the upper levels a cut-off low will be over the Midwest on
Saturday night. A trough will move through the region on Saturday
night. Pops will be 30 to 50 percent in western and northern parts
of the region. On Sunday some showers may linger as southerly flow
continues with the cold front staying well to the north. Pops will
be 20 to 30 percent on Sunday. Another trough will move through
Monday night into Tuesday bringing a chance of rain. Lows will be
mostly in the upper 50s. Highs will be in the lower 80s.
Aviation [through 06z friday]...
MVFR cigs are expected to develop closer to dawn across all
terminals with moist, easterly flow setting up. MVFR conds will
persist through much of the day, perhaps lifting or scattering in
the late afternoon or early evening. Winds will continue from the
east today with a constant 10 to 12 knot breeze with a few gusts
approaching 20 knots.
Easterly winds will increase to 20 knots by this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting this afternoon
through Friday afternoon. Winds will stay elevated through
Moist, easterly surface winds will keep minimum relative humidity
values well above critical levels. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies
will be the rule with wind speeds of 10 to 15 miles per hour with a few gusts
approaching 20 miles per hour. No red flag concerns.
Local rivers are well below action levels. Rain totals are
forecast to be less than half an inch over the next seven days. No
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 73 55 78 57 80 / 10 0 0 0 20
Panama City 74 61 74 62 74 / 10 0 0 0 40
Dothan 70 54 76 56 79 / 10 0 0 0 40
Albany 69 52 76 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 71 54 77 56 81 / 10 0 0 0 10
Cross City 74 54 77 56 80 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 73 62 71 63 74 / 10 0 0 0 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 am EDT Friday
for coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
Florida out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida
from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Friday
for waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.