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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
331 am EDT sun Oct 23 2016

Near term [through today]...
northwest mid level flow continues as the height center moves into
the central Gulf of Mexico allowing surface high pressure to build
and slide across southern Alabama allowing our surface winds to
shift to the northeast today. High temperatures today will be around
normal to slightly above normal with readings in the mid to upper

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
high pressure will remain in place across the region tonight
allowing for another chilly night with low temperatures likely to
drop into the lower 40s. Some of the guidance has pockets of upper
30s, but this seems unlikely.

By Monday, as the high pressure area weakens and the airmass
continues to slowly modify, temperatures will be on a warming
trend through the end of the short term period with highs in the
low to mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the lower 50s.

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
model guidance continues to be in good agreement that high
pressure will build across the mid Atlantic states on Tuesday
night, which will result in an increase in easterly flow across
the region that will continue through Thursday. This will return
plenty of low level moisture, and also result in overnight lows
warming into the mid to upper 50s.

While there were some differences in the 22/00z cycle with respect
to a trough moving across the eastern Continental U.S. On Thursday/Friday,
that is no longer the case this cycle, with the 23/00z GFS
back in good agreement with the 23/00z Euro, showing a moisture-
starved system moving across the southern US on Thursday, and a
dry cold front clearing our forecast area by Friday afternoon.
Given the lack of any deep layer moisture, will keep pops out of
the forecast with the passage of this system. Temperatures will
remain above climatology in this portion of the forecast.

At the end of the period, high pressure will build in from the
north, but with no significant intrusion of cooler air, a
continued stretch of dry and warm conditions will prevail through
the coming weekend.


Aviation [through 06z monday]...
VFR with light north-northeast winds.


winds will weaken later this afternoon as high pressure builds
over the marine area. Winds and seas will remain low through
Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, high pressure over the mid Atlantic
will tighten the pressure gradient over the marine area and result
in at least cautionary winds at times from Tuesday night through
Thursday morning.


Fire weather...
red flag warning is in effect this afternoon for the eastern Florida
Panhandle counties north of the immediate coast due to relative
humidity values falling to 20 to 25 percent and energy release
components values of 38. Dry air will remain in place over the
next several days with light winds. Depending on the erc values
Monday...additional red flag warnings may be needed across
portions of the Florida Panhandle.


with no rain in the forecast for the next several days, there are
no flood concerns.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 79 43 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 53 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 79 46 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 78 44 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 77 44 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 78 44 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 53 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... flag warning from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for central Walton-coastal Bay-
Holmes-inland Bay-north Walton-south Walton-Washington.




Near term...scholl
short term...Godsey
long term...Godsey
fire weather...scholl

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