Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 251719
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
119 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017
Aviation [through 18z monday]...
There is a weak frontal boundary bisecting the area from southwest
to northeast. Lots of moisture is in place with enough instability
and lift to spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
All tafs have mention of thunderstorms this afternoon and will
metwatch for amendments depending on how widespread the
precipitation becomes. The front will slowly sag southward with
time today and tonight. Redevelopment is possible overnight
towards dawn so added a vcsh mention to ecp/tlh/vld due to close
proximity of the front.
Previous discussion [1028 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
Interesting forecast shaping up for today with a slow moving frontal
boundary entering the area and a tropical airmass in place. A large
area of 2 inch pwats or greater resides along and ahead of the front
across our area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the greatest chance
along a corridor from near Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta.
Looking at forecast soundings in BUFKIT, the steering flow is weak,
and the flow that's there is generally parallel to the front this
afternoon. This could support slow moving or training convection
within the tropical airmass ahead of the front. Several cams respond
to this by dumping isolated 4-6" rainfall amounts today across the
eastern Florida Panhandle, western Big Bend, and adjacent southern
Georgia. However, most areas will see anywhere from a quarter inch
to an inch of rain. Coordinated with wpc on a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall today to account for the possibility of the
isolated heavy totals. Because of the expected isolated nature of
the heavy totals, a watch does not seem warranted, but we did add
locally heavy rainfall wording into the point and click forecast to
show some indication of the heavy rainfall potential today, mainly
from Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta. High temperatures will
generally range from the mid 80s to near 90.
Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
The front will weaken and stall over the area tonight. Pops tonight
will range from 20-40%. By Monday night drier air will push south as
high pressure builds in over the southeast. Tuesday will be fairly
dry for Summer, with pops limited to The Big Bend. Drier air will
allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s on Sunday night. Highs
will be in the upper 80s.
Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
As high pressure moves off the coast of the Carolinas, winds will
become southeasterly and will bring moisture in from the Gulf.
Pops will return to a more typical Summer sea breeze pattern with
20-50% expected each day. Temperatures will also moderate some
with lows returning to the lower 70s and highs near 90.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible as a front stalls
over the area for the next few days. Outside of thunderstorms winds
will be around 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Most rivers are near their crests from the recent heavy rainfall and
have started to fall, although the Choctawhatchee River in Florida
is still rising in action stage. It is not currently expected to
make it to flood stage though. Some isolated heavy rainfall totals
of around 4 inches are possible today, although most places will
only see a quarter inch to 1 inch. Should these heavier totals fall
over an urban area or other poor drainage area, then some localized
flooding cannot be ruled out. The best chance of seeing this
rainfall is along a corridor from near Panama City to Tallahassee to
Valdosta. Since the heavy totals are expected to be isolated, a
watch does not appear warranted at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 72 87 68 88 69 / 40 20 10 20 10
Panama City 74 85 72 85 73 / 50 20 10 20 10
Dothan 69 87 66 86 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
Albany 70 87 66 87 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 72 87 67 88 68 / 50 30 10 20 10
Cross City 73 88 70 87 70 / 20 50 30 40 20
Apalachicola 74 86 71 85 73 / 30 20 10 20 20