Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
336 am EDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
Near term [through today]...
Low and mid level flow will shift to the northeast allowing a drier
airmass to filter into the region. The far western zones will have
the best chance for seeing convection (30-40%) where atmospheric
moisture will be a bit higher. Otherwise, pops will be 20% or less
for the remainder of the County Warning Area. Temps will be in the lower 90s.
Short term [tonight through friday]...
Deep layer ridging and lower than typical moisture levels will
keep rain chances low through Friday. Expect afternoon highs to be
a degree or so on the high side of normal.
Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
Lower than normal pops will continue on Saturday, though deep
layer moisture will begin gradually increasing. By Sunday, expect
pops to return to at least normal. Easterly flow will favor the
highest pops across North Florida and extreme south Georgia,
especially in the Suwannee basin. Highs will be near normal.
The long range forecast still remains highly uncertain as models
struggle to agree on the evolution of a potential tropical cyclone
near the Greater Antilles/Bahamas region early this weekend.
Depending on the model, a tc of varying intensities could remain
in the western Atlantic, move through the southern Gulf, or
anywhere in between beginning late this weekend through mid-week
next week. Folks along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should pay
close attention to the forecasts over the next several days and
take some time to be sure your disaster supply kits are up to
date. Regardless of the eventual evolution of this system, the
above steps are prudent as we move through the peak of hurricane
Aviation [through 06z thursday]...
MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible around daybreak at vld. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail with light winds.
Easterly flow will result in cautionary level nocturnal wind surges
for the next couple of nights. Seas will likely be in the 2 to 4
foot range. Winds and seas will temporarily ease each through each
Drier air will work into the area beginning today with diminishing
chances for rain through the remainder of the work week. Relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels and there are no
fire weather concerns at this time.
Flooding is not expected over the next several days as pops will
likely be below normal through Saturday. Thereafter, a typical
scattering of afternoon storms should be expected. Coverage and
intensity of rainfall could increase early to mid next week
depending on the evolution of a possible tropical cyclone.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 93 74 93 75 95 / 20 20 10 10 20
Panama City 92 77 90 78 91 / 20 20 10 0 10
Dothan 93 73 93 71 96 / 30 10 0 0 10
Albany 93 72 93 71 96 / 10 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 92 71 92 73 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
Cross City 92 74 92 74 95 / 20 10 20 10 20
Apalachicola 90 77 89 78 89 / 20 20 10 10 10