Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 190021
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
721 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017
Near term [through tonight]...
21z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching across the
Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. The latest surface
observations show that this front is racing quickly southeastward.
The latest guidance from our convection allowing models (cam)
shows the front beginning to move into southeast Alabama around
10 PM et/ 9 PM CT. Updated the pop and weather grids to reflect
the timing from the latest cam guidance, but otherwise no changes
to the forecast were necessary.
Aviation [through 00z monday]...
A thin line of storms associated with a cold front will move
through the area tonight. These storms are expected to briefly
bring some MVFR cigs with them, along with gusty winds from the
west. Expect strong northwest winds starting Sunday morning
behind the front.
Previous discussion [231 PM est]...
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
a cool and dry airmass will pour into the region on Sunday in the
wake of the cold front. Expect highs to reach into the lower to
mid 60s for most locations. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by
Monday morning as the surface high slides just north of the area.
May see some patchy frost, especially in southeast Alabama and SW Georgia
where the boundary layer is most likely to decouple. The airmass
will begin to modify by Monday afternoon as a shortwave ridge
moves east along the Gulf Coast. Expect highs in the mid to upper
60s Monday afternoon with lows in the mid to upper 40s by Tuesday
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
guidance is still have significant issues handling the pattern
evolution by mid to late week. There is good agreement that the
upper trough will become re-established over the eastern conus by
mid week, with deep moisture spreading back over the area.
However, the evolution of the main embedded shortwave remains
tricky. Models have oscillated between focusing the main surface
cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf and Florida East Coast. The
eastern solutions will produce less rain over the area for
Wednesday and Thursday versus the western solutions. With little
model-to-model or run-to-run consistency, will continue to go with
a general blend of the guidance, keeping scattered showers in the
forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday. In either scenario,
temperatures (especially high temperatures) will likely be below
normal with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s.
northwesterly winds will increase rapidly by from west to east
overnight in the wake of a cold front. Expect to see Small Craft
Advisory conditions through much of Sunday. Winds and seas will
subside through early next week as high pressure builds in.
However, strong winds may return by mid to late week.
drier, breezier conditions are expected to move in Sunday in the wake
of a cold front. However, no hazardous fire weather conditions are
expected for the next several days.
no Hydro concerns.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 54 65 36 67 49 / 40 20 0 0 10
Panama City 55 64 40 65 53 / 40 10 0 0 20
Dothan 49 62 34 63 46 / 40 10 0 0 10
Albany 51 62 35 63 46 / 40 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 55 64 35 66 49 / 40 20 0 0 10
Cross City 57 70 36 70 52 / 40 40 0 0 10
Apalachicola 56 67 40 65 54 / 40 20 0 0 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay or
coastal waters from Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach out 20 nm-coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.