Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
221 am EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Near term [through today]...
The front has stalled and is currently along a line from port St.
Joe to Valdosta. Rain today will be focused along and south of
this area. Several hi-res models are consistent with convection
initiating in Apalachee Bay this morning and moving inland to The
Big Bend by this afternoon. Pops reflect this trend with 40-60% in
The Big Bend and less than 20% for southeast Alabama and most of SW Georgia. Highs
today will reach the upper 80s.
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
Some drier air across the northern half of the area will tend to
suppress convection there through Wednesday with pops below
average for this time of year. However, there will still be
decent moisture and the seabreeze to support scattered afternoon
convection across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend as well as
adjacent areas of southern Georgia. High temperatures will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly
in the lower 70s.
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
Deep layer moisture is expected to increase across the area on
Thursday with a return to seasonal scattered convection areawide.
In fact, near seasonal pops of 40-50% are expected each day with
seasonal temperatures as well.
[through 06z tuesday] vld has fallen to LIFR the past few hours
and tlh has been bouncing to LIFR. Expect showers to develop over
the next few hours over the water and then move inland through
the day. Included vcsh at ecp and tlh starting at 08z and vld at
10z then thunderstorms in the vicinity after 16z. Dhn and aby are on the dry side of the
front and will be VFR through the period.
Typical Summer weather is expected with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms and low winds and seas outside of thunderstorms.
Low transport winds and cloudy skies will lead to low dispersion
indices in parts of North Florida and SW Georgia. Otherwise, there
are no fire weather concerns.
Although the Choctawhatchee River in Florida will remain in action
stage for at least the next few days, it is expected to crest below
flood stage. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 87 71 91 71 90 / 30 20 50 20 30
Panama City 86 76 88 75 87 / 20 10 30 20 30
Dothan 89 69 90 70 89 / 10 0 20 10 10
Albany 90 71 91 71 90 / 10 10 20 10 10
Valdosta 88 70 91 70 90 / 40 30 50 20 20
Cross City 89 73 90 71 89 / 50 40 50 30 40
Apalachicola 84 75 87 75 86 / 30 20 40 20 30