Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktae 221127 
afdtae

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
627 am EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Aviation [through 12z thursday]...

Showers and low clouds prevail across much of our region,
although model guidance has overestimated coverage of LIFR/IFR
cigs. Dhn has been the only terminal to consistently receive LIFR
cigs, while others have remained at MVFR/VFR overnight. Expect
this trend to continue, and dhn should also see cigs rise through
the morning and afternoon, with all terminals likely returning to
VFR by the early afternoon. Showers will dissipate as the day
progresses, and are expected to end by the evening. Low clouds are
likely to return tonight, and the setup should be more favorable
for IFR/LIFR cigs than the previous night with light northeasterly
flow and no showers/rain expected. In addition to the low clouds,
patchy fog cannot be ruled out overnight.



&&

Previous discussion [246 am est]...

Near term [through today]...

An area of low pressure, vertically stacked from upper levels down
to the surface, will continue to slide slowly southeastward from the
central Gulf Coast region into the northeastern Gulf through the
morning into the afternoon. Deep layer moisture will continue to be
advected northwestward on the eastern/northern flanks of this
system, which will maintain the broad area of stratiform rain
currently over our area through much of the morning. Rainfall is
expected to become more scattered/showery in nature throughout the
day as the low slides south of our area, precipitable water values decrease
slightly below 1.5", and isentropic lift weakens. Modest cape
values, generally below 500 j/kg, will not support widespread
thunder but isolated storms cannot be ruled out. With widespread
cloud cover for much of the day, diurnal temperature changes are
expected to be fairly small. Early morning lows will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs will remain in the lower-mid 70s
during the afternoon.



Short term [tonight through friday]...

The upper low and weak surface low along the Gulf Coast this morning
that is helping to feed deep layer moisture and showers across the
County Warning Area will move southeast by tonight with the upper level closed low
off the West Coast of Florida and the surface low across southern
Florida. As this occurs, the 500mb winds become northerly tonight
with the surface winds east to northeast. Although this ends the
deep Gulf moisture advecting into the cwa, plenty of low level
moisture will remain in place for clouds to persist through
tomorrow morning. With the the proximity of the upper level low,
a few showers are possible tonight with the better chances across
the southeast portion of The Big Bend. Instability is low tonight
so have just included the mention of showers.

The upper level low and surface low will continue to shift eastward
and eventually weaken as they are absorbed into another shortwave
and surface low over the weekend. With these features well removed
from the cwa, deep layer moisture decreasing and upper level ridging
building in for Thursday night and Friday, the second half of the
short term will be dry.

Temperatures will continue to be warm through the short term with
upper 70s to lower 80s for high temperatures. Forecast for tlh is
near record to record highs. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s
to low 60s.



Long term [friday night through wednesday]...

A weak cold front will move into the southeast Friday night and push
through the County Warning Area on Saturday. With precipitable water values only around an inch with
the front moving through, moisture with the front is on the low side
and thus only a slight chance of showers as the front moves through
Saturday. Temperatures will cool down somewhat behind the front with
lows in the 40s Sunday morning and highs reaching into the mid to
upper 60s during the day. High temperatures Sunday will be more
normal for this time of year.

After the weak front moves through Saturday, high pressure builds
into the County Warning Area for Sunday into the beginning of the work week. The
next cold front will hold off until mid to late week.

Except for the slightly cooler temperatures with the cold front,
highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 50s.



Marine...

Rain will persist through today but diminish tonight. East to
northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue into Thursday but
weaken to 5 knots on Friday. A weak cold front will move through
Saturday increasing winds to cautionary levels Saturday afternoon
and night.



Fire weather...

No fire weather hazards are expected through the next few days with
light winds and relative humidity values well above critical thresholds.



Hydrology...

Widespread one to three inches of rain has fallen with the system so
far across the western half of the County Warning Area and up to another inch of
rain is expected. The rain rates have been low and thus no
widespread flooding issues have been noted so far, however some
rises can be noted on local rivers. Specifically, Mossy Head reached
action stage yesterday evening and while it is expected to continue
to rise, it isn't expected to reach flood stage. The Choctawhatchee
River at Bruce and Caryville are rising and expected to reach action
stage over the next day or two. For the latest river forecast please
visit water.Weather.Gov.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 73 61 82 58 83 / 80 20 0 0 0
Panama City 70 61 75 61 74 / 60 10 0 0 0
Dothan 73 58 78 57 80 / 60 20 0 0 0
Albany 74 58 79 56 82 / 70 20 0 0 0
Valdosta 74 60 79 58 83 / 80 30 10 0 0
Cross City 73 61 80 59 82 / 80 30 10 0 0
Apalachicola 70 61 77 61 76 / 70 20 0 0 0

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...lahr
short term...fieux
long term...fieux

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations