Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 271913
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
313 PM EDT Sat may 27 2017
Near term [through tonight]...
Fair conditions will persist through the evening hours, before mid-
level clouds from the west gradually encroach upon the area tonight.
Given the modest increase in moisture over the past 24 hours or so,
low stratus is expected to develop across much of the region late
tonight and linger through daybreak Sunday morning. Though winds are
forecast to remain non-calm, some patchy fog is possible in areas
where winds can remain weak for an extended period of time. Given
the widespread cloud cover expected across the region, low
temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Short term [sunday through Monday night]...
Deep layer ridging will persist for Sunday with the center of the
upper level ridge sliding just south of the County Warning Area tomorrow. While
moisture will increase for Sunday, with the ridging and lack of
forcing, dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the
weekend. The upper ridging will shift eastward on Monday as an
upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front
associated with this will sink into the southeast Sunday night
into Monday with it situated across the northern portion of the
County Warning Area or just north of the County Warning Area on Monday. With increasing moisture
and the proximity of the front, convection will return for Monday,
with the better chances (40-50%) across southeast Alabama. There
is plenty of instability Monday afternoon (1500-2000 j/kg mlcape)
and with deep layer shear around 30kts that a few of these storms
could be strong to severe. The main threat would be damaging
winds. Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook includes generally the northern half of
the County Warning Area and the western portion of a portion of the Florida
Panhandle in a marginal risk for Monday.
Long term [tuesday through saturday]...
The surface front impacting the County Warning Area in the short term will stall
across/near the County Warning Area in the long term, helping to allow for
scattered thunderstorms each day through the long term forecast.
In addition, a few short waves in the flow may help to enhance
convection, but it is too early to pinpoint the timing on those
upper level features. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, near
normal for this time of year.
Aviation [through 18z sunday]...
VFR conditions thru the rest of the afternoon and evening with west-
southwesterly winds generally at or below 10kts. Expect ceilings to diminish at
all taf sites overnight, with increasing confidence in MVFR to IFR
ceilings by daybreak. Ceilings are expected to slowly improve Sunday
morning, with VFR conditions resuming by late morning/early
afternoon. Though vsby restrictions are possible overnight, non-calm
winds will be a factor any reductions in vsby.
Southwest winds around 15 knots or less will persist through
Monday. After this, winds will become more variable through the
week. A front that stalls north of the marine area will help to
allow for isolated convection from Monday through the remainder of
Expect high dispersion indices over 75 on Sunday for most of the
region. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.
The area will be in a more active pattern beginning Monday with
scattered convection possible each day. Heavy rain will be
possible in some of the thunderstorms, however overall rainfall
amounts over the next week are limited and thus no widespread
flooding is expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 69 91 68 92 68 / 10 0 10 20 10
Panama City 73 82 74 83 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
Dothan 71 91 72 90 70 / 10 0 10 50 20
Albany 71 91 73 91 72 / 0 0 0 40 20
Valdosta 68 91 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 20 10
Cross City 68 89 70 91 70 / 10 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 72 86 73 86 72 / 0 10 10 20 10