Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1059 am EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Near term [through today]...
No significant changes were made to the current forecast. Highs in
the lower 80s will prevail this afternoon, along with light
northwesterly winds under mostly sunny skies.
Previous discussion [637 am edt]...
Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
But for a weak upper-level short wave trough passing through the
region Tuesday, the forecast area will be dominated by a deep layer
ridge. A rather potent upper-level short wave trough, currently just
off the U.S. West Coast, will dive southeastward over the Midwest
on Wednesday. While this system will bring a slight increase in
vertical motion to our forecast area, the strongest forcing will
remain well to the north. Additionally, as is often the case this
time of year, there will be a lack of deep layer moisture, and
forecast pops are therefore less than 20%. Daytime temperatures
will be above average, in the mid 80s. However, a weak "backdoor"
cold front will move into the region from the northeast on
Tuesday, essentially squelching the recent warming trend. Lows
will be around 50 tonight, and in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday
Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
The aforementioned upper-level trough over the Midwest will move
into New England Thursday, bringing an end to the weak q-g forcing across
our forecast area. The rest of the period will feature a mean
upper ridge over much of the central Continental U.S. And a mean trough over
the east, with multiple short wave troughs diving southeastward
across the eastern Continental U.S.. it appears that our area will remain too
dry and too far to the south for rain chances above 20%.
Temperatures will remain above average, especially during the
daytime, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s.
Aviation [through 12z tuesday]...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light northerly winds
through the period.
With a surface ridge across the area through Tuesday winds and
seas will be low. A stronger ridge will build down the U.S. East
Coast beginning Tuesday night, and winds and seas will increase
accordingly. Advisory conditions will be possible at times mid
week, especially overnight and during the morning hours, when the
wind speeds typically peak.
A very dry airmass will remain in place today with min relative humidity values in
the low to mid 20s across the entire tri-state region, except
along the coast. Due to a combination of long durations of low relative humidity
and high erc values, red flag criteria will likely be met for
Walton, Holmes, and Bay counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns. Min relative humidity values
are forecast to gradually rise across the area after today.
Our dry October, which is already a dry month to begin with, will
continue this week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 83 50 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 80 59 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 82 51 84 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 83 50 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 82 49 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 80 49 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 79 59 80 65 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for
central Walton-coastal Bay-inland Bay-north Walton-south