Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1106 am EDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016
Near term [through today]...
Morning surface and upper level analysis shows stacked ridging
building over the area. This will result in less available moisture
than was in place yesterday, limiting the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Current forecast looks to be on track, with chance
pops western zones where higher moisture is in place, and an
isolated chance of a sea breeze shower or storm elsewhere.
High temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, with mid 90s common
Previous discussion [659 am edt]...
Short term [tonight through friday]...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature through the
short term with below average rain chances as it builds across
the area. Given the below average convective coverage, afternoon
high temperatures are expected to be slightly above average with
mid to upper 90s for highs. For the most part, Max heat index
values are expected to remain below the 108 degree level needed
for a heat advisory, although some areas will be in the 104-107
range on Thursday and Friday.
Long term [friday night through wednesday]...
Upper ridging is expected to weaken slightly as a weak upper
trough moves through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Afternoon
thunderstorm chances are expected to be close to average for this
time of year at 30-40% across most of the area through the period.
By the end of the period, the 00z GFS forecasts precipitable water values over
2 inches across most of the area, so convective chances may
increase some by the middle of next week. Seasonably hot
temperatures are expected with mid 90s for highs, mid 70s for
lows, and Max heat index values in the 100-105 range.
Aviation [through 12z thursday]...
VFR conditions to prevail with only a slight chance of any impacts
from afternoon thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the south
Winds and seas are expected to decrease back to typical low
summertime levels today as high pressure builds across the area
with winds less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less.
High dispersion values will be possible away from the coast the
next two afternoons. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather
With a drier pattern expected for the next few days, there are no
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 95 75 96 75 95 / 20 10 20 10 30
Panama City 89 79 89 79 88 / 20 10 20 10 30
Dothan 93 74 94 73 93 / 30 10 20 10 20
Albany 95 74 97 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 20
Valdosta 95 73 96 72 95 / 20 10 20 0 30
Cross City 95 74 95 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 91 77 91 77 90 / 10 10 20 10 30
Florida...high rip current risk until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon
for coastal Bay-coastal Gulf-south Walton.