Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
941 am MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Synopsis...strengthening high pressure aloft across the Great
Basin will bring drier conditions and warm temperatures to the
region midweek. The next weather disturbance to impact Utah will
Discussion...the forecast area is under a westerly flow this
morning behind the trough that moved across the state yesterday.
Lower clouds continue over eastern Utah, with clearer skies over
western Utah with drier air moving in. High pressure will start to
build over the area later today, but lingering moisture and
instability could result in a few showers, primarily over the
higher terrain of northern Utah. Updated the forecast earlier to
adjust pops with current trends. No additional updates planned.
The airmass will remain quite mild over the forecast area over the
next few days. Maxes today are progged to run up to 10f above
seasonal norms and additional warming is expected tomorrow and
Thursday with the ridge building, and then southwest flow
increasing as the ridge shifts east. Maxes Thursday are progged to
be around 15f above climo.
The next storm system is on track to move across northern Utah on
Friday, bringing a bit of a cooldown and a quick shot of valley
rain and high elevation snow. Another trough is then expected
Sunday night into Monday, though there remains some disagreement
in the models about the details of the track and the strength of
Aviation...VFR conditions at kslc terminal today under scattered
cumulus and broken mid level clouds. Southerly flow will continue
into the afternoon, when a switch to the northwest becomes likely.
The wind switch should occur later in the afternoon, between 2000z
and 2200z. However these winds should be lighter than the south
flow that maximized in the mid morning, and may be under the
magnitude of impact.
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