Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kslc 170412
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
912 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis...high pressure will remain over the Great Basin through
midweek, before giving way to a warm southwest flow on Thursday.
A strong cold front will cross Utah Friday through Friday night
with a cold upper trough remaining over the area Saturday.
Discussion...a weak shortwave trough fighting through a mean
large scale ridge position is translating east across the forecast
area this evening, bringing little more than a band of clouds and
virga. May see some very light snow at the higher elevations
through the remainder of the evening before drier air evident in
water vapor imagery along the Utah/Nevada border spreads east into the
area. Have maintained slight chance pops for the higher terrain
although will likely be able to update and remove these later this
evening for the overnight period. This ridge is expected to
rebound across the region late tonight through Wednesday, as a
potent upper trough over the eastern Pacific begins to approach
the West Coast. This trough is still forecast by the 00z GFS/NAM
to push a progressive front through northern Utah Friday afternoon
through Friday evening, then likely through the remainder of the
forecast area Friday evening through Friday night, although the
12z European model (ecmwf) would offer a much slower and much snowier solution
area-wide. Stay tuned...
Aviation...light west-northwest winds will continue at kslc
through 06z before switching back to the south. There is a 30
percent chance these winds switch to southerly as early as the
04-05z timeframe. VFR conditions will prevail through the night
with ceilings remaining above 7 kft.
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