Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
339 am MDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Synopsis...high pressure will reside across the region today.
Southwesterly flow will develop over the weekend with moisture
spreading into the region starting Sunday.
Short term (through 00z monday)...a broad mid level ridge
centered across the Great Basin/intermountain region will
gradually shift east today, allowing a deep layer southwesterly
flow aloft to overspread the forecast area for the upcoming
weekend. This will result in a warming trend with Max temperatures
exceeding climatological norms beginning today. The models have
been consistent advecting mid level moisture into the forecast
area from the southwest beginning Sunday afternoon, and have
retained low pops for the southern mountains during this time.
Long term (after 00z monday)...fairly significant moisture
advection will be ongoing at the start of the long term portion
of the forecast as deep southwesterly flow remains across the
area. Global model solutions vary about 12 hours on the arrival of
this moisture across southern/eastern Utah. Several subtle
shortwaves are expected to cross the area later Sunday into Monday
providing sufficient lift for at least isolated to widely
An upper level low will approach the Pacific northwest early
Monday. Several stronger shortwaves rotating around this low will
help to provide widespread precipitation to at least central and
southern Utah later Monday into early Tuesday. Nudged pops higher
in this package and if this morning's runs show a similar pattern,
higher pops will likely be indicated.
Shortwave ridging Tuesday into Wednesday will develop as the
upper level low starts to dig down the Pacific coast. This will
bring at least a temporary period of warming and drier conditions
to the state, likely lasting into at least the end of the work
week if not into the weekend.
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at kslc through the taf
period, with southerly winds switching to the northwest between
18z and 20z today.
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