Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
326 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

Synopsis...strengthening high pressure aloft across the region
will generate very warm and generally dry conditions across most
of Utah throughout the upcoming week. A little moisture will
linger across the far south Monday through Tuesday.


Short term (until 12z wednesday)...another weak short wave
passing to our north has kept the airmass very dry across the
northern County Warning Area this aftn while moisture has lingered over the
southern County Warning Area. Convection has formed over the srn mtns as well as
across some of the southern valleys. This should mostly die off
by late eve with the loss of daytime heating.

The moisture is forecast to shift north Mon as a weak trof
deepens along the West Coast and the flow backs to swly over our
County Warning Area. This is not expected to be a deep surge altho isolated
pockets of brief heavy rain could develop over the far south. A
weak disturbance lifting out of srn Nevada ahead of the developing
West Coast trof is forecast to keep weak convection active across
western then northern UT overnight. Don't expect much if any rain
from this but scattered clouds are possible. This feature however
could give the daytime convection a boost Monday with an earlier
start over the nrn mtns.

The high to our southeast starts to elongate wwd on Tue shutting
off the moisture feed but expect another round of isolated
convection across the south in the moisture that is in place with
a few early aftn cells over the nern mtns.

The northwest stays dry Mon thru Tue with a warming airmass
sending temps to 100 or a little higher along the Wasatch front.

Long term (after 12z wednesday)...a strong mid level ridge is
forecast to reside across the Great Basin region at the beginning
of the long term period, and remain the dominant feature through
the remainder of the week. As a result temperatures will remain
above normal through this timeframe with kslc expected to reach or
exceed the 100f mark each afternoon. Moisture is forecast to
gradually seep into the ridge position as early as Friday allowing
for a chance of high based convection across southern and possibly
central Utah. By next weekend this ridge axis is expected to shift
east allowing a south to southwesterly fetch to potentially draw
deeper moisture northward into the region late next weekend.


Aviation...winds at the slc terminal are expected to switch to
the southeast around 03-05z, with a slight chance that northerlies
hang on as late as 06z. Clouds could increase through the
nighttime hours, but any ceilings should remain above 7000 feet.


Fire weather...a dry airmass remains in place across the
northern portions of the district while just enough moisture has
spread into the south and east to fuel isolated afternoon
thunderstorms that will persist into this evening. The moisture
creeps north up the east side of the area tonight with a better
chance of thunderstorms over the northeastern mountains on Monday
and Tuesday and a continued chance over the central mountains and
across the south. The northwest will stay hot and dry through
Tuesday. High pressure expands westward on Wednesday spreading the
drier airmass into southern Utah and ending the threat of
thunderstorms. This drier air will remain in place across the
majority of the area Thursday with continued hot temperatures.


Slc watches/warnings/advisories...



For more information from noaa's National Weather Service visit...

For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations