Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
940 am MDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
Synopsis...a weak disturbance will move across the northern
Great Basin today. High pressure will build into the area
Wednesday and remain in place through Thursday. The ridge will
shift east Friday allowing for moisture to return Friday afternoon
through the weekend.
Discussion...a weak shortwave will cross the northern
intermountain region today. The associated weak boundary will
cross the state this afternoon into this evening. The main impact
will be a significant decrease in precipitable water values across
much of the state...with pwats falling to near 0.25 to 0.40 across
northern Utah by late evening.
Ahead of this boundary, a few showers and even a thunderstorm have
developed across northern Utah. Updated the forecast to add a
chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms through about 18z in this
area. A brief period of increased instability this afternoon
should bring the threat of a few showers/thunderstorms for the
Wasatch crest and east through at least early evening.
Aside from updating the pops through 18z, updated sky to match
current trends. No additional updates are anticipated.
Aviation...southeast winds will prevail at the slc terminal through
about 19z before becoming northwest, with a 30 percent chance this
shift will occur as early as 17z.
Fire weather...a few thunderstorms are expected across the uintas
and Tavaputs early this afternoon before drier, northwesterly flow
builds into the area this evening. Precipitable water values through
early evening should allow thunderstorms to lean toward the wetter
side, though any thunderstorms will be capable of strong and gusty
In the wake of the trough moving by today, a ridge will build in
across the Great Basin Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions along
with hot temperatures expected across the entire fire district
Wednesday with single digit relative humidity values in most valleys. Perhaps
isolated thunderstorms return over the Southwest Mountains of Utah
Thursday but more likely this will occur Friday. The ridge will
shift east this weekend opening the door for moisture to move up
across the entire area. There is elevated concern for a possible
dry/wet thunderstorm outbreak this weekend after this dry and hot
period across western and northern Utah/southwest Wyoming.
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