Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ksjt 172100 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
300 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Short term...
(tonight and sunday)

A weak boundary has moved southward across the Big Country this
afternoon, increasing winds out of the north and keeping afternoon
temperatures in the 60s. South of the boundary, temperatures
rebounded quite rapidly into the 70s once the showers and clouds
moved off to the east. For tonight, should see the boundary continue
southward through the rest of the area, but not expecting any
significant change, other than a wind shift.

Overnight tonight, we should see Lee trough developing to the west,
which will shift winds around to the southeast, with low level
moisture surging north. Expect low clouds to move in by sunrise,
with some patchy drizzle possible along the I-10 corridor.

Southwest flow aloft will bring a weak disturbance across the area
on Sunday, with a chance of showers. A dryline trys to set up Sunday
afternoon across the west, so we could see a few thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening. We kept high temperatures tomorrow a
few degrees cooler than today across the south due to increased
cloud cover, but we should climb into the 70s.

Long term...
(monday through saturday)

A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will linger into Monday
afternoon as southwest flow aloft continues across the region.
Otherwise, it will very warm and breezy...with temperatures
soaring into the upper 70s and 80s thanks to strong low level
southwesterly flow.

Medium range guidance indicates a stronger disturbance tracking
across the area Monday night and Tuesday. Large scale ascent
associated with this feature combined with increasing moisture
will lead to a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday night and into Tuesday morning...with the bulk of the
convection moving off to the east of the area in the afternoon. At
this time, not anticipating these storms to reach severe limits
but this will continue to be monitored.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday as a
strong cold front tracks southward across west central Texas.
Model guidance continues to trend colder with temperatures behind
the front as an overrunning pattern sets up in the afternoon. Have
kept precipitation type as liquid but will continue to monitor
this portion of the forecast closely. Drier and cool conditions
expected on Thursday with long range guidance diverging going into
next week. Have kept a chance of pops in the forecast with
gradually warming temperatures for Friday and Saturday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 47 72 61 80 / 0 30 20 20
San Angelo 52 72 60 81 / 5 30 20 10
Junction 52 71 61 78 / 20 40 20 10
Brownwood 46 70 59 77 / 5 30 20 30
Sweetwater 46 71 58 79 / 0 20 20 10
Ozona 55 68 59 75 / 10 30 20 10


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations