Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
611 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Some low cloud development is expected across mainly the
southern half of our area early this morning, and toward the end
of the TAF period early Thursday morning. Our southern terminals
will be affected with occasional MVFR ceilings, and KSJT should 
be near the northern edge of the low cloud field. With the 
exception of the low cloud development, VFR conditions are
expected. Breezy south winds will occur today, but sustained
speeds and gusts will be less than what occurred yesterday.
Convective activity in west and northwest parts of Texas will
remain well to the west of our TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Our area will be under mainly southerly flow aloft today and tonight.
To our east, the upper level high over the southeastern CONUS will
weaken slightly today and tonight. To our west, the upper trough
currently over western New Mexico will move slowly east today, and
will shear out somewhat as it lifts northeast tonight. The upper
high will be the prevailing influence for our area. Temperatures
today are expected to be similar to yesterday, with highs late this
afternoon in the 90-95 degree range. Skies will be generally clear
to partly cloudy over our area.  

With the approach of the aforementioned trough, showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening across the
Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin areas into parts of northwest Texas
this afternoon and evening. This convective activity will
essentially remain west and northwest of our area, and most of the
convection is expected to dissipate by Midnight tonight. We are
carrying nominal slight chance PoPs in parts of our far western
counties. 

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Subtropical ridge when has been slowly shifting west into Texas
the last few days will begin to retreat back to the north and
east, becoming centered over the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday.
Upper level flow across West Central Texas will be weak over the
weekend and into early next week, but without the ridge in place,
appears there will be a few weak shortwaves set to cross the area.
In addition, if nothing else at least the area will not be capped.
Thus, the slight chance PoPs in place already for the weekend and
into early next week seems like the best forecast for now.
Temperatures will be near or a little below seasonal normals, with
highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  71  94  69 /  10   5   5  10 
San Angelo  94  71  94  69 /   5   5   5  10 
Junction  93  70  92  69 /   0   0   5   5 
Brownwood  92  70  93  70 /   5   0   5   5 
Sweetwater  93  70  92  68 /  20  10  10  10 
Ozona       92  70  91  69 /  10   5   5  10 

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations