Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ksjt 220525
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1225 am CDT sun Apr 22 2018
Brief MVFR ceilings are possible across kabi and kbbd this
morning. However, VFR conditions should remain in place for the
majority of the taf period. Winds will generally be light and
from the north.
Previous discussion... /issued 628 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/
A cold front continues south across the area early this
evening and will move through the ksjt terminal by 00z and
the far southern terminals by 02z. North winds will gust to
around 20 knots immediately behind the front but winds will
subside to 10 knots or less by mid to late evening. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across the area after
midnight and linger through mid morning before scattering
out to VFR. Expect light north winds on Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/
(tonight and sunday)
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring along a cold
front that is moving south through the northern Big Country this
afternoon. Although severe weather is not anticipated, a few
strong storms will be possible this afternoon. The majority of
this activity will move east of the area by late this afternoon.
The cold front will quickly move south, approaching the Interstate
20 corridor around 4 PM, San Angelo around 6 PM, and the
Interstate 10 corridor around 8 PM. Gusty north winds of 15 to 25
mph can be expected behind the front, with winds decreasing late
this evening. Colder temperatures are forecast Sunday morning,
with most locations in the mid to upper 40s. Morning clouds will
give way to mostly sunny skies Sunday afternoon. Below normal
temperatures are anticipated on Sunday, with highs in the 70s.
(sunday night through next saturday)
The pattern continues to stay in a fairly active Mode through the
end of the week, with a cold front moving through mid-week, and
again late in the week. However, models are having a hard time
agreeing on evolution of the pattern throughout the week.
By Sunday night, the upper level low currently over southwest
Kansas will be positioned in the mid south region of the Continental U.S..
that will be followed up by another shortwave trough moving
through the Great Plains states from Tuesday through Wednesday
night, with one more trough moving through the Great Lakes region
Thursday night into Friday. This will keep our area under
persistent northwest flow for most of the week, generally a
favorable pattern for precipitation chances during the Spring
For Monday, winds will be turning back around to the south, and
and our weather will be dry as surface high pressure moves off to
the east. Highs will warm up into the 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday into Wednesday, models agree that a we will have a cold
front and a chance for showers and thunderstorms with that front,
but disagree on the timing. The GFS is faster, bring the front
through Tuesday evening, along with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The European model (ecmwf) is roughly 18 to 24 hours slower with the
front and the precipitation. Have kept precipitation chances in
from Tuesday night into Wednesday for the most part. After warm
temperatures Tuesday, expect highs to be cooler Wednesday,
depending on the speed of the cold front. Expect Thursday to be
dry and warmer than Wednesday.
For the next system from Thursday night into Saturday, the European model (ecmwf)
is actually showing a stronger, faster trough moving through all
of the plains, including the Texas/Oklahoma South Plains region.
This results in a cold front and associated precipitation chances
moving through Thursday night into Friday. The GFS doesn't really
show a cold front moving through west central Texas, but does
still bring precipitation chances in as a shortwave trough moves
over the area out of Mexico.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 75 45 70 45 / 50 5 0 0
San Angelo 82 47 74 47 / 30 0 0 5
Junction 82 48 77 49 / 30 5 0 0
Brownwood 77 48 71 46 / 60 20 0 0
Sweetwater 76 45 70 48 / 30 5 0 5
Ozona 82 47 75 49 / 20 0 0 5