Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KSJT 180423 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1023 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will develop across the area late tonight as the boundary layer moisture increases. Look for mainly MVFR ceilings at the southern terminals by 08Z and at the KABI terminal by 13Z. The low clouds will remain across the area for much of Sunday. Expect the winds to become southerly Sunday, with gusts to around 25 knots. Also, scattered showers are possible late tonight and Sunday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening across West Central Texas. Widespread stratus will develop across the area tonight as the boundary layer moisture increases. Look for MVFR/IFR ceilings at the southern terminals by 07Z and at the KABI terminal, with MVFR by 12Z. The low clouds will remain across the area on Sunday, with ceilings improving to MVFR at the southern terminals by 19Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Sunday) A weak boundary has moved southward across the Big Country this afternoon, increasing winds out of the north and keeping afternoon temperatures in the 60s. South of the boundary, temperatures rebounded quite rapidly into the 70s once the showers and clouds moved off to the east. For tonight, should see the boundary continue southward through the rest of the area, but not expecting any significant change, other than a wind shift. Overnight tonight, we should see lee trough developing to the west, which will shift winds around to the southeast, with low level moisture surging north. Expect low clouds to move in by sunrise, with some patchy drizzle possible along the I-10 corridor. Southwest flow aloft will bring a weak disturbance across the area on Sunday, with a chance of showers. A dryline trys to set up Sunday afternoon across the west, so we could see a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. We kept high temperatures tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today across the south due to increased cloud cover, but we should climb into the 70s. LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will linger into Monday afternoon as southwest flow aloft continues across the region. Otherwise, it will very warm and breezy...with temperatures soaring into the upper 70s and 80s thanks to strong low level southwesterly flow. Medium range guidance indicates a stronger disturbance tracking across the area Monday night and Tuesday. Large scale ascent associated with this feature combined with increasing moisture will lead to a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday night and into Tuesday morning...with the bulk of the convection moving off to the east of the area in the afternoon. At this time, not anticipating these storms to reach severe limits but this will continue to be monitored. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday as a strong cold front tracks southward across West Central Texas. Model guidance continues to trend colder with temperatures behind the front as an overrunning pattern sets up in the afternoon. Have kept precipitation type as liquid but will continue to monitor this portion of the forecast closely. Drier and cool conditions expected on Thursday with long range guidance diverging going into next week. Have kept a chance of PoPs in the forecast with gradually warming temperatures for Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 47 72 61 80 / 0 30 20 20 San Angelo 52 72 60 81 / 10 30 20 10 Junction 52 71 61 78 / 20 40 20 10 Brownwood 46 70 59 77 / 0 30 20 30 Sweetwater 46 71 58 79 / 5 20 20 10 Ozona 55 68 59 75 / 20 30 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.