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000 
FXUS64 KSJT 180423
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1023 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Widespread stratus will develop across the area late tonight as 
the boundary layer moisture increases. Look for mainly MVFR 
ceilings at the southern terminals by 08Z and at the KABI 
terminal by 13Z. The low clouds will remain across the area for 
much of Sunday. Expect the winds to become southerly Sunday, with 
gusts to around 25 knots. Also, scattered showers are possible 
late tonight and Sunday morning. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening across West Central
Texas. Widespread stratus will develop across the area tonight as
the boundary layer moisture increases. Look for MVFR/IFR ceilings
at the southern terminals by 07Z and at the KABI terminal, with
MVFR by 12Z. The low clouds will remain across the area on Sunday,
with ceilings improving to MVFR at the southern terminals by 19Z. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A weak boundary has moved southward across the Big Country this 
afternoon, increasing winds out of the north and keeping afternoon 
temperatures in the 60s. South of the boundary, temperatures 
rebounded quite rapidly into the 70s once the showers and clouds 
moved off to the east. For tonight, should see the boundary continue 
southward through the rest of the area, but not expecting any 
significant change, other than a wind shift.  

Overnight tonight, we should see lee trough developing to the west, 
which will shift winds around to the southeast, with low level 
moisture surging north. Expect low clouds to move in by sunrise, 
with some patchy drizzle possible along the I-10 corridor. 

Southwest flow aloft will bring a weak disturbance across the area 
on Sunday, with a chance of showers. A dryline trys to set up Sunday 
afternoon across the west, so we could see a few thunderstorms 
Sunday afternoon and evening. We kept high temperatures tomorrow a 
few degrees cooler than today across the south due to increased 
cloud cover, but we should climb into the 70s. 

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will linger into Monday 
afternoon as southwest flow aloft continues across the region.
Otherwise, it will very warm and breezy...with temperatures 
soaring into the upper 70s and 80s thanks to strong low level 
southwesterly flow. 

Medium range guidance indicates a stronger disturbance tracking
across the area Monday night and Tuesday. Large scale ascent
associated with this feature combined with increasing moisture
will lead to a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms 
Monday night and into Tuesday morning...with the bulk of the 
convection moving off to the east of the area in the afternoon. At
this time, not anticipating these storms to reach severe limits 
but this will continue to be monitored. 

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday as a
strong cold front tracks southward across West Central Texas.
Model guidance continues to trend colder with temperatures behind
the front as an overrunning pattern sets up in the afternoon. Have
kept precipitation type as liquid but will continue to monitor
this portion of the forecast closely. Drier and cool conditions
expected on Thursday with long range guidance diverging going into
next week. Have kept a chance of PoPs in the forecast with 
gradually warming temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  72  61  80 /   0  30  20  20 
San Angelo  52  72  60  81 /  10  30  20  10 
Junction  52  71  61  78 /  20  40  20  10 
Brownwood  46  70  59  77 /   0  30  20  30 
Sweetwater  46  71  58  79 /   5  20  20  10 
Ozona       55  68  59  75 /  20  30  20  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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