Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kshv 240550 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1150 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Aviation...
for the 24/06z tafs, VFR conditions with sky clear prevail for now but
that will be changing over the next several hours with south winds
from 8-14 kts and occasional higher gusts. This will aid in low
stratus advecting northward this morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. MVFR/IFR conditions will spread across all sites until
the front gradually clears from west to east through mid to late
morning across East Texas and during the afternoon hours in north la/S Arkansas.
Winds will quickly shift northwest with frontal passage and some gusts up
to 20 kts or higher could occur invof of the front. Skies will
clear behind the front so VFR conditions will return late in the
period as the front advances on to the east, finally clearing mlu
shortly after 25/00z with northwest winds dropping off slightly to near
10 kts or less.

/19/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 930 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Discussion...
strong surface pressure gradient remains across the Southern
Plains/lower miss valley late this evening but slight cooling of
the boundary layer has resulted limited mixing and thus wind
speeds have dropped across the lake Wind Advisory area this
evening. Will let the advisory ride for another hour and a half
with its expiration time set for 11 PM this evening. Other
changes included beefing up sky cover more in line with the
18z/00z NAM output which develops a pretty saturated boundary
layer from south to north after midnight.

Given the timing of the expected cloud cover developing and/or
moving northward across the region late tonight...left overnight
min temps unchanged as the clear skies could allow for temps to
fall to near fcst mins.

Otherwise...no other significant changes were made to the forecast
overnight. Will not send out the modified zone forecast product until just after 11
PM this evening to remove the lake Wind Advisory...all other
products will be issued shortly.

13

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 57 81 41 60 / 10 10 0 0
mlu 57 82 43 60 / 10 10 10 0
deq 53 72 33 55 / 10 10 0 0
txk 56 76 36 56 / 10 10 0 0
eld 55 78 36 57 / 10 10 0 0
tyr 56 76 40 59 / 10 10 0 0
ggg 56 78 40 59 / 10 10 0 0
lfk 59 83 42 66 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations