Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kshv 170857
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
357 am CDT Tue Oct 17 2017
a modest warming trend will carry through the remainder of this
week ahead of our next major cold front set to arrive later on
this weekend. The good news is rain is looking more likely with
this next front.
In the meantime, expect the upper longwave pattern to become more
progressive as the trough which brought our most recent cold front
exits the eastern Seaboard later today. Upper ridging will become
more amplified across the mid-section of the country by mid to
late week with the aforementioned warming trend getting a boost.
Couple that with surface high pressure advancing farther east into
the mid-Atlantic region which will allow for a return to southeast
flow across our region. This will push high temperatures back near
80 degrees in our northern zones and ranging through the lower 80s
farther south by Wednesday. These warmer temperatures will prevail
through Saturday with these cool mornings only lasting for a few
more days as Gulf moisture will gradually increase by late week
into the weekend due to the return flow setting up once again.
As the upper ridge begins to transition east by Friday, a weak
shortwave will quickly spill in behind it ahead of a much stronger
upper trough entering The Rockies. The weaker shortwave may allow
for some isolated convection as early as Friday across our western
zones before expanding areawide by Friday night through Saturday.
However, the threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
not come until Saturday night through early Sunday as the more
robust upper trough shifting from The Rockies into the plains will
push a strong cold front across the region. Medium range guidance
indicates only minor timing discrepancies with this front with
both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show a solid line of convection developing
as the front advances along and east of the I-35 corridor across
eastern Oklahoma and North Texas. For now, the threat of severe
weather looks to be minimal but we are approaching our fall peak
period so this will be closely monitored as we get closer to the
weekend. Total rainfall amounts over the weekend will average near
one inch in most areas with higher amounts closer to two inches
possible in and around the I-30 corridor.
In the wake of this cold front, more seasonable temperatures will
return for the latter half of the weekend through early next week.
Dry weather looks to prevail as cool northwest flow aloft likely
will persist through much of next week with the longwave trough
slowly advancing across the eastern half of the country.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 76 48 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
mlu 76 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
deq 74 41 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
txk 74 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
eld 74 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
tyr 76 48 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
ggg 76 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
lfk 76 50 82 55 / 0 0 0 0