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fxus64 kshv 270559 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1159 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Aviation...
for the 27/06z tafs, MVFR conditions overtaking most terminals to
begin this period as ceilings lower in locations with showers and
thunderstorms. Thunder is still best handled with tempo conditions
but could become better organized on through Monday morning as an
upper level disturbance shifts eastward across Texas into our region.
Ceilings will likely continue to deteriorate with mostly MVFR and
occasional IFR conditions possible through much of Monday morning
as convection increases and expands farther east into the region.
Convection should begin to wane during Monday afternoon with just
isolated activity still possible through the end of the taf cycle.
Otherwise, mainly sely winds between 5-10 kts to prevail with some
occasional higher gusts invof on convection.

/19/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 931 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017/

Update...
warm front as of 03z was located near a Sulphur Springs... Mount
Pleasant Texas to El Dorado Arkansas line. This feature should
continue to slowly move north overnight but for the update this
evening...lowered temps a degree or two as fcst mins had either
already been reached or were close to being reached compared to
the warm sector south of the warm front across the southern two
thirds of northeast Texas and northern Louisiana.

Upper flow continues to be from the southwest this evening with an
embedded shortwave located across the upper Red River valley of
southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. This trough will open up
in the middle Red River valley of southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas towards sunrise. As of late this evening...most of the
rainfall has remained near and to the north of the I-30 corridor
but as we go through the remainder of the night and as the trough
from the northwest nears, we should begin to see this more
scattered to numerous precip coverage move south and east towards
the I-20 corridor of northeast Texas into northern Louisiana.
Therefore left the pop forecast as it is but did lower our
extreme southern zones a precip category as the newest 00z NAM and
hrrr output suggests our southern zones may not see much in the
way of coverage until near or just after sunrise.

All other elements in pretty good shape so no further update was
necessary. Updated package already sent.

13

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 58 77 64 82 / 70 50 30 30
mlu 56 76 64 83 / 60 60 30 30
deq 46 69 57 76 / 70 40 30 40
txk 49 72 61 78 / 70 50 30 40
eld 52 72 61 80 / 70 60 30 40
tyr 59 78 63 80 / 70 50 20 40
ggg 59 77 64 81 / 70 50 20 40
lfk 61 80 65 83 / 50 50 30 30

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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