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fxus64 kshv 240549 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Aviation...
for the arklatex, ktxk is vlifr attm with MVFR/VFR everywhere
else, but a fog bank is colocated with a stationary front over NE
Texas/S OK, shwrs/thunderstorms over OK moving ne25kt along front. The parent
upper low in The Rockies is nudging the front our way for Sat W/
heating adding chance for severe thunderstorms in the midday to sunset
timeframe. S/SW and sustain 10-20kt with gusts to 30kt during
Saturday with fropa 25/00-06z for our terminals. Look for more
IFR/MVFR W/ convection. Winds west/northwest 25/03z-09z west-east across area.
/24/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 931 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

Update...
enjoying a clean radar this evening across the four state region
but this will change as we transition into the pre and Post dawn
hours on Saturday with strong to severe thunderstorms likely
across most of the region along with another shot of flash flood
producing rainfall possibly.

Until that time, not seeing much that would support renewed
convective development overnight across most of our region through
the overnight hours. The exception to this is our northwest zones as
subtle forcing overnight should begin increasing after midnight
and especially towards daybreak. For this reason, have lowered
pops to slight chance variety across all but our northwest zones.

Sfc warm front is very subtle tonight but appears to be located
near a Tyler, Texas to El Dorado, Arkansas line. A very slow
northward movement is expected overnight and it should be through
all but our extreme northwest zones by sunrise. Until that time, have
added areas of fog to the grids north of the warm front with some
observing sites showing some patchy dense fog this evening.

Did not make any significant changes to overnight temperatures but
did address the lack of cloud cover across our southern zones with
this area likely filling back in after midnight.

Otherwise, no other changes attm...13.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 67 77 49 66 / 20 90 80 30
mlu 67 80 54 64 / 20 50 80 50
deq 58 72 39 65 / 50 100 10 10
txk 61 74 44 66 / 30 100 30 10
eld 62 77 47 65 / 20 80 80 20
tyr 60 75 45 68 / 20 100 20 20
ggg 64 76 46 67 / 20 100 30 20
lfk 67 79 52 64 / 20 90 70 60

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 6 PM CST Saturday for arz060-061-
070>073.

Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for arz050-051-
059>061-070>073.

La...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 6 PM CST Saturday for laz001>006-
010>014-017>022.

Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for laz001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for okz077.

Texas...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 am to 6 PM CST Saturday for txz096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for txz096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.

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