Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
tail end of cold front movg south across OK. Moisture is marginal
but a few tstms occurring central OK. This front may bring a few
eve storms to the txk vcnty but expect activity to dissipate
before reaching any of the other areal terminals. In the meantime,
lgt winds across most of la/Arkansas and SW 5 to 10 kts over portions of
NE Texas. Patchy fog possible late tonight and a few VFR stratocu
decks also possible./Vii/.
Previous discussion... /issued 1120 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
raise high temperatures and expand early evening pops/wx.
lots of sunshine and light winds have some readings in the mid 70s
last top of the hour. Longview and Henderson are 77. Generally
the add 10 at 10 am CST works out for most and many sites have
been bumped a degree or two or three at ggg. Elsewhere, elements
are in good shape. We have expanded slight/chance pops in NE Texas as
the latest hrrr is indicating part of line backdooring down mini
derecho style with late day heating. We will see later what that
may entail, but for now content with a mention in the update. /24/
Previous discussion... /issued 427 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
water vapor imagery depicts a short wave trough advancing eastward
this morning from the plains across the mid-section of the country.
A cold front is reflected at the surface with a line of convection
over much of eastern Kansas extending farther northeast into the
Midwest. The front is expected to weaken with additional southward
progress later today, but the base of the trough will dip farther
south and lead to additional convection over eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this afternoon and through the evening hours so
have brought pops as far south as the I-30 corridor. Beyond that,
do not expect much else as upper level energy will be minimal as
the trough quickly pivots east overnight through early Thursday.
Upper level ridge will quickly set up in the wake of the departing
trough and put a lid on rain chances for late week on through the
weekend. This will also spell a warming trend with mid to upper
80s common areawide for highs through much of the extended period.
The chance of any appreciable rainfall still does not look very
promising through at least early next week although slight chance
pops have been included for our southern zones starting Tuesday
through the middle of next week as deep southerly flow prevails
ahead of the next cold front which is currently progged to arrive
late next week. In the meantime, expect above normal temperatures
to continue as we close out the month of October on a warm note.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 84 58 83 59 / 10 10 10 0
mlu 83 57 84 58 / 10 10 10 0
deq 81 56 82 54 / 20 30 10 0
txk 83 58 82 58 / 10 30 10 0
eld 81 54 81 55 / 10 10 10 0
tyr 84 60 83 61 / 10 30 10 0
ggg 85 58 83 59 / 10 30 10 0
lfk 85 57 84 60 / 10 10 10 0