Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Several different features contributing to convection over the
region today. A weak mid to upper level shear axis along with
daytime heating across Southeast Texas has resulted in isolated convection
developing across the Brazos River Valley and spreading northeast
into Deep East Texas. Daytime heating has also lead to isolated convection
across our Central Louisiana parishes. Northwesterly flow aloft
has allowed an old outflow boundary from overnight convection in
NW Oklahoma to move southeast into the Interstate 30 corridor our
our region. Isolated convection has developed on an off along
this boundary today. Latest model guidance suggests redevelopment
may continue to occur along the remnant outflow boundary through
the evening hours. A similar setup is expected on tomorrow as
another convective complex is expected to develops over Oklahoma
and another outflow boundary is sent southeastward towards our CWA
along with more possible diurnal convection.

Rain chances will continue on Sunday, but will shift slightly
eastward, as we continue to be in Northwest flow aloft. As we
continue through next week, rain chances will gradually diminish
and become confined to our Louisiana and Southern Arkansas zones
on Tuesday. A broad upper ridge builds into the region by mid
week, but weak mid-level disturbances rotating underneath the
ridge could provide some increased chances for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms through next weekend. Daytime high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s can be expected as early as
Monday and persisting through the next work week. With the lack of
significant rainfall expected for next week, expect heat indices to
return above 105 degrees, and possible heat advisories returning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/ 

For the 29/18z terminal forecast period...most sites will be VFR
for the start of the period but a few locations /GGG, LFK, MLU/
holding on with MVFR ceilings. These will lift to VFR in the early
afternoon. Extensive cloud cover over the forecast area starting
off this afternoon under the influence of a trough of low pressure
aloft trailing Southwest across the region and a tropical weakness
between a large ridge of high pressure aloft over just west of the
four corners region and another over North Florida and the Eastern
gulf and the South Atlantic Coast off North Florida. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms over parts of Deep East Texas and lower
Northwest and North Central Louisiana and over Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas are expected to expand into the afternoon
and early evening with afternoon heating and weak boundaries. Have
included VCSH/VCTS or tempo TSRA in terminals and will amened when
they trend to prevail or increase into the afternoon and evening.
surface winds Southwest to West winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
and light and variable to light South or Southwest overnight,
returning to Southerly 5-10 knots on Saturday. /06/


SHV  76  93  76  96 /  20  40  20  20 
MLU  74  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  30 
DEQ  72  92  73  94 /  40  40  20  30 
TXK  74  94  76  95 /  40  40  20  30 
ELD  73  92  74  94 /  40  40  20  30 
TYR  76  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10 
GGG  76  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20 
LFK  75  95  75  96 /  20  30  10  20 


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations