Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kshv 230017
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
717 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017
for the arklatex, range of flight categories from VFR Texas to IFR
la/Arkansas as dew point Cindy moves pretty much overhead. Sfc winds are all
over the place with southwest to prevail in the wake of the
system. Still gusty S in la, east-northeast Arkansas and SW in Texas. Aloft, our climb
winds are northwest and back to SW for flight levels abv fl200 with only
20-40kts in the profile. The low will eject NE overnight and the
rain with, but IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby remain. An approaching cold
front will arrive tomorrow late into Sat a.M. With thunderstorms. /24/
Previous discussion... /issued 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/
Tropical Depression Cindy, currently located across the Texas and
Louisiana border north of Toledo Bend, continues to move north.
Winds have been averaging around 10 to 15 mph across East Texas
and around 15 mph across north Louisiana with an occasional report
approaching 20 mph. For this forecast package will cancel lake
Wind Advisory across deep East Texas and will extend advisory
through 10 PM on the east side of the low across north Louisiana.
Flash Flood Watch will remain unchanged for this forecast package.
Current forecast guidance suggests that the heavy rain threat will
remain on the east side of the center with training of storms
being the main threat. Overnight, remnants of Cindy will shift
northeast in advance of an approaching upper-level disturbance.
Rainfall totals of around 3 to 4 inches may be possible on south
and east side of the low across areas within the Flash Flood
A cold front will move south across the region on Friday bringing
continued widespread rain chances. Will refrain from extending
Flash Flood Watch beyond Friday morning unless heavy rainfall
threat materializes overnight. Temperatures on Friday to approach
90 ahead of the front with overnight low temperatures falling into
the lower to middle 70s.
Rain chances to gradually diminish through the weekend with
temperatures ranging from highs in the lower to middle 80s and
lows in the upper 60s.
Surface high to shift east on Monday with a gradual warming trend
expected through the remainder of the forecast period with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 70s by
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 74 88 74 83 / 90 60 60 60
mlu 76 86 74 83 / 90 90 60 70
deq 73 89 70 84 / 40 50 60 40
txk 74 87 72 82 / 80 50 60 60
eld 74 85 72 82 / 90 80 60 60
tyr 75 91 74 84 / 50 20 60 60
ggg 75 89 74 83 / 70 50 60 70
lfk 76 90 76 86 / 90 30 40 70
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Friday for arz071>073.
La...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for laz001>006-
Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Friday for laz001>006-010>014-
Texas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT Friday for txz126-137-138-