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fxus64 kshv 201739 aaa 
afdshv

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Shreveport la
1139 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Aviation...
mostly VFR conditions will continue through much of the 20/18z taf
period. An extensive lyr of cirrus will continue to gradually
diminish from west to east this afternoon with the passage of a weak
shortwave, although periods of cirrus will remain possible
overnight as they spill southeast in wake of the shortwave passage, and
just ahead of a developing shortwave that will dig S into the srn
plains/MS valley from the cntrl plains Tuesday morning. The
cirrus will thicken considerably by/after 12z Tuesday, although a
20-25kt swrly low level flow will yield an increase in low
VFR/high based MVFR cigs across portions of deep East Texas by/shortly
after 12z. These cigs may spread NE into more of East Texas/wrn la
through midday, although confidence is not high enough to include
cigs in for the tyr/ggg/shv terminals just yet. However, should
see an increase in ac cigs Tuesday afternoon in advance of the
next digging shortwave trough. South-southeast winds 5-10kts will persist this
afternoon areawide and tonight across east TX, but will diminish to
light S after 00z over SW Arkansas/north la. /15/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1115 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

Update...
to sky condition expected this afternoon.

Discussion...
the back edge of a shield of cirrus is flying over Tyler now at
45kts and should allow for more sunshine this afternoon from west to
east over the four state area. The next batch is several hundred
miles away under an upper ridge over West Texas and will arrive in the
western sky for sunset and overnight. So far, our temps have been
slow to warm with cirrus rather dense and after such a chilly
start. We may fall short in a few spots, but not enough of a
difference to change zone wording for high temp categories. /24/

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 66 44 68 46 / 0 10 10 10
mlu 62 38 68 44 / 0 10 10 10
deq 65 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
txk 62 41 65 41 / 0 0 10 0
eld 62 38 65 41 / 0 10 10 10
tyr 65 45 68 44 / 0 10 10 10
ggg 65 43 68 44 / 0 10 10 10
lfk 66 45 70 48 / 0 10 10 10

&&

Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.

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