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fxus64 kshv 200002 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
602 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

prevailing ceilings ranging from 35hdft to 3kft cover our entire
airspace this evening with those ceilings expected to gradually
become MVFR and perhaps IFR in a few locations late tonight
towards sunrise Sat morning. Isentropic lift is expected to
increase overnight as well across NE Texas and thus we could see
some patchy drizzle near and after sunrise on Sat which could
bring visibilities down to the 3-5sm category as well. IFR/MVFR ceilings
will be slow to lift on Sat if at all but tried to show at least
some gradual improvement of IFR ceilings to MVFR categories by Sat
aftn. South to south-southeast winds near 6-12kts overnight will increase on
Sat to near 08-14kts.



Previous discussion... /issued 227 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

closed upper low currently noted in WV imagery skirting across
our srn areas, parallel to the nrn Gulf coastline, to continue ewd
tonight. Models suggest that a few shwrs could accompany the low
tonight/Saturday as it drifts ewd, with areas in its wake
experiencing some light shwrs/drizzle.

Sly sfc flow to continue increasing across our region through
Saturday, as Lee trof deepens ahead of an approaching upper trof
over srn CA/NV. Despite cloud cover, warm air advection ahead of this trof will
allow our temps to reach into the 60s on Saturday and the 70s on
Sunday. Closed upper low will push into the srn plains Sunday,
driving a dryline and cold front through our region Sunday aftn
into Monday morning. Shwrs/tstms are likely to develop along and
ahead of the dryline, likely intensifying by Sunday night as the
uper trof moves closer and the wind fields increase. Clouds
likely to inhibit sfc-based instability, but mrgl mixed-layer
instability will likely be sufficient to produce a few damaging
wind gusts, especially when supported by the fcst strong upper
level dynamics and deep-layer shear. Cold front will quickly push
through the region during the overnight hours Sunday into Monday,
with convection movg E of our region by mid morning Monday.

Somewhat cooler but relatively mild temperatures for the work week
are expected in the wake of monday's cold front, with quasi-zonal
flow aloft expected to continue through the remainder of the fcst



Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 45 65 58 71 / 20 20 20 50
mlu 40 64 54 72 / 20 20 20 30
deq 40 59 53 66 / 20 20 20 60
txk 44 60 55 68 / 20 20 20 50
eld 40 61 55 69 / 20 20 20 40
tyr 47 65 58 70 / 20 20 20 60
ggg 45 65 58 71 / 20 20 20 50
lfk 47 67 59 73 / 20 20 20 50


Shv watches/warnings/advisories...

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