Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus66 ksgx 221100 
afdsgx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
300 am PST Fri Nov 22 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure and weak offshore flow will bring dry and warmer
weather this weekend. Fair weather will continue Monday ahead of a
storm system looking more likely Wednesday through at least
Thanksgiving day.

&&

Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...

Residual moisture has some clouds over the valleys this morning,
but they are clearing. Where it clears out, some pockets of the
valleys could get dense fog for a couple hours this morning. High
clouds are drifting in from the west, from a weak upper low over
the Pacific. Some clouds will form over mountains and valleys
today. Some offshore flow will produce light easterly breezes in
foothills today. Dry and warmer weather is on tap this weekend as
high pressure aloft combines with offshore flow. Look for mostly
clear skies and offshore breezes mainly in foothills and adjacent
valleys. Gusts could reach 35+ mph in the favored locations
Saturday, but lighter Sunday. High temperatures will top out
Sunday with lots of 70s in the lower elevations, a little higher
than average. Next week a large and amplified longwave trough will
settle over western North America, which allows a shortwave to
carve out an even more amplified trough just off the West Coast
Monday and Tuesday. It will begin to produce strong southwest
winds for our mountains and deserts Tuesday ahead of the moisture.
Rain and mountain snow begins either Tuesday night or Wednesday
with strong winds Wednesday. This storm system is more
straightforward than our last one. The trough very slowly inches
eastward on Thanksgiving day for continued precip but a drop off
in winds. The Holiday will be the coolest day in the next seven,
with high temps 10 to 20 degrees below average (highs in the 50s
to low 60s). Deterministic models and ensembles are in
impressively good agreement on this stormy and cold solution. But
of course they begin to diverge around the Holiday, some solutions
holding on to the precipitation into next Saturday, or moving it
out by Friday. Confidence is higher than average for a five-day
solution that portends a stormy Wednesday and Holiday.

&&

Aviation...
221015z...few-sct mid level clouds with bases ranging between 2000-
7000 feet mean sea level along with higher level clouds at or above 20k feet through late
morning. Low clouds or visible restrictions are not anticipated at any
of the terminals through early evening with prevailing VFR
conditions expected.

&&

Marine...
no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

Skywarn...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...
California...none.
Pz...none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations