Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksgx 262028
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
128 PM PDT Fri may 26 2017
high pressure aloft will rebuild over the west this Holiday
weekend bringing a warming trend and gradually less coastal
cloudiness each night and morning. Slightly cooler weather
expected toward the middle of next week.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
The clearing pattern with our monster deep marine layer went
quite well this morning and early afternoon. Some shallow
convection within the marine layer has regenerated stratocumulus
clouds over parts of the coastal areas, but the beaches are too
stable for that and cleared out nicely. The main forecast elements
are the sky cover and temperatures as we head into the long
Holiday weekend. A weak high pressure ridge will gradually develop
through Monday. The marine layer will gradually become more
shallow day by day, something like 4000 feet tonight and 2000 feet
by Sunday morning, meaning the coastal low clouds will still fill
the coastal basin tonight, but not as extensive Sunday or Monday.
More sunshine will mean a warming trend through the Holiday when
highs will be near average near the coast, and several degrees
above average far inland. A typical late Spring pattern will
continue to bring fair and benign weather to the region next week.
A weak trough starting Tuesday will probably deepen the marine
layer and extend the coastal clouds nights and mornings through
the middle of the week. It also shows some increasing high clouds
of no more consequence than to accent the mostly blue skies.
Temperatures will come down a little Tuesday and beyond, but quite
close to seasonal averages.
262000z...coast/valleys/coastal mountain slopes...patchy low clouds,
with bases 4500-5500 ft mean sea level and tops to 6000 ft msl, will continue
through this afternoon. Higher terrain near the mountains in San
Bernardino County will be obscured at times. Low clouds will
redevelop along the coast this evening with bases around 2500 ft
msl, and spread inland to mountain slopes by early Saturday morning.
Visible of 2-4 sm br is possible inland where low clouds near higher
terrain. Low clouds will clear towards the coast by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.
Mountains/deserts...areas of SW-west surface wind gusts 30-40 kt along
the desert slopes/foothills and through passes will continue this
afternoon, with moderate to strong up and downdrafts, along with
with pockets of wind shear over and NE/east of the mountains. Winds
will weaken slightly tonight.
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.