Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
345 am PDT Friday Jul 29 2016
high pressure aloft will weaken slightly through early next week
with monsoonal moisture increasing through early next week. This
will bring an inland cooling trending with increasing chances for
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms...mainly for
the mountains and deserts. Gradual drying for the latter half of
next week with a slow inland warming trend toward next weekend.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
High pressure aloft over the southwestern states will shift
southward and slowly weaken through early next week. High
temperatures in the mountains and deserts today will be nearly as
hot as Thursday and could even be a degree or two higher in
inland portions of the inland Empire. Stratus coverage over the
coastal waters is patchier and should not extend too far inland
early this morning.
There were a few showers each of the past two afternoons over the
San Bernardino Mountains and adjacent desert areas. Higher
resolution models support a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening over the mountains from the San
Bernardino Mountains southward.
Monsoonal moisture will gradually increase through early next
week...supporting a little greater chance for mainly afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms...mainly for the mountains and deserts
with the potential for flash flooding a little greater by Sunday
Inland high temperatures will cool Saturday and Sunday and be near
to a little below average for much of next week except near the
coast. Slow drying for the latter half of next week should
decrease the thunderstorm chances near the mountains for the
latter half of next week and may allow for slight inland warming
towards next weekend.
290900z...coast and valleys...p6sm sky clear-few100-150, except for patchy
stratus development 10-16z over the coastal waters, extending inland
up to 10-15 miles with bases 800-1200 feet mean sea level and tops below 1500 feet
mean sea level. Local vis restrictions of 1-3 sm possible along the higher
Mountains and deserts...p6sm few-sct100-150 through this evening,
except for possible isolated thunderstorm development 20z-02z along
the ridge tops and across the High Desert with assoc uddfs and low level wind shear.
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.