Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus66 ksgx 231030
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
230 am PST Thu Feb 23 2017
winds will decrease this morning and fair, cool weather is
forecast through Saturday. Another storm will bring Rain,
Mountain snow and winds Sunday with showers continuing into early
Tuesday. Dry and warmer weather will follow.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
Winds and clouds will gradually decrease this morning, leaving
behind fair weather for the day. Yesterday's trough of low
pressure has brought much cooler and drier air into the region and
temps will stay below average for a while. Today will cool and
tonight will be cold with patchy frost in inland valleys. It will
be only slightly warmer Friday and Saturday. The next
precipitation appears to arrive Sunday, but the guidance has been
wishy washy as to the timing and amounts. A trough out west in the
Pacific will interact with a cold trough diving down the West
Coast. Each model run comes up with a different scenario about
how they interact with each other and how and when the best
moisture gets entrained into the overall system. Our forecast has
increasing chances Sunday morning. Even less settled is the
forecast precip amounts. With so many moving parts and features it
will take time to lock in on a consistent and confident forecast.
Strong winds are also expected mainly on Sunday and Sunday night.
On Monday it looks rather cold, so snow levels should drop to
about 4000 feet. Strangely, the different models and successive
model runs agree on a more distant solution that consistently ends
the showers Tuesday morning. High pressure aloft builds along the
West Coast as we greet March. It could bring a meaningful warming
trend getting a boost from some offshore flow.
220950z...coasts/valleys...areas of scattered-broken clouds between 2500 and
5000 ft msl will continue to clear from northwest to southeast
through 14z. After 14z, mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Mountains/deserts...W/NW surface wind gusts of 30-40 kt will persist
through the morning over the ridges and along the desert slopes of
the mountains. Mountain wave activity will also produce areas of
moderate to strong uddfs and low level wind shear over and east of the mountains. Winds
will begin to weaken after 15z, then become light tonight.
northwest winds gusting 20-25 kt and combined seas of 7-11 ft will continue
over the coastal waters through tonight. These conditions will
produce hazardous boating conditions, and a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through 2 am Friday. No hazardous marine weather
is expected Friday and Saturday. Another storm may bring a period of
showers and gusty winds sometime Sunday and Monday, but confidence
in timing and expected impacts is low at this time.
a west swell from 285-290 degrees will generate surf of 4-7 ft and
strong rip currents along west facing beaches through tonight. A
high surf advisory remains in effect through 2 am Friday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
California...Wind Advisory until 10 am PST this morning for apple and Lucerne
valleys-Riverside County mountains-San Bernardino County
mountains-San Diego County deserts-San Diego County
mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.
High surf advisory until 2 am PST Friday for Orange County
coastal areas-San Diego County coastal areas.
Pz...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am PST Friday for coastal waters
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border and out to 30 nm-
waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border extending
30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.