Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ksgf 260441 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A closed vertically stacked low just northeast of ksgf will
continue to shift northeast. Convection has been shallow with
limited instability. With this cold core low, can't rule out some
small hail with stronger updrafts that may briefly try to form
over central MO northeast and east of the low this afternoon.

Precip chances will shift northeast with the low this afternoon
and this evening, but clouds are likely to hang on into Sunday,
finally starting to clear from the west during the day Sunday.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Guidance has been consistent with an active pattern with Pacific
based systems expected to affect the area Sunday night into Mon
and again with a stronger storm Wed-Thu.

Sunday night-Mon: an open shortwave/vort Max now moving into
northern Arizona will move quickly east, reaching eastern Kansas/northeast
OK by 12z/7 am Monday. The sfc low will track from northeast OK
through southern MO on Monday. The GFS does pull moisture and
instability northward into southern MO Mon with MLCAPE values of
1000 j/kg up to the MO/Arkansas border, but better vertical shear looks
to be south of the area. Could be a low end risk for stronger
storms Monday over far southern MO. Given the relatively fast
movement of the system, rainfall amounts are not expected to
heavy, at least on a widespread basis.

Tue: a bit of a lull for Mon night and Tue in between the exiting
and next approaching storm system. Mild temperatures are expected
Tue afternoon.

Wed-Thu: there is good general agreement with various pieces of
guidance concerning the timing of the next system later in the
week. This upper system is expected to track into the central and
Southern Plains Wed closing off while lifting ENE through our area
Thu. This looks to be a stronger and slower system with better
rainfall potential along with at least a low end chance for
severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center outlook places a 15% svr risk just south of
the cwfa where better vertical shear/instability combo looks
better right now.

Fri-Sat: the system pulls away with this period looking relatively
quiet. Another potential upstream system may affect the area just
after this time frame.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Taf sites have dropped or are in the process of dropping to near
IFR conditions as a weak frontal boundary swings through southwest
MO. Sufficient drying is anticipated later tonight to see some
limited fog...though winds will stay just strong enough to negate

Remaining stratus/stratocumulus to thin by mid morning leading to
VFR conditions through the afternoon. Rain showers to move in then from
the west during the evening...with thunderstorms and rain chances being monitored.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations