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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 am CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

..12z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 220 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A shortwave currently over southeast Nebraska and an attending
frontal boundary will approach the area this morning. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop throughout the
day today because of these features interacting with a moist and
somewhat unstable airmass. Due to the timing of these features,
areas along and southeast of Interstate 44 have the best
opportunity for this activity. Like the past few days locally
heavy rainfall/limited flooding will be possible mainly across
south central Missouri due to the high moisture content in the
atmosphere. Temps will remain near average today.

Tonight models suggest that a mesoscale convective system (mcs)
will develop across southwest Nebraska and dive south- southeast
into central Kansas as a low level jet develops across the Texas/OK
panhandles and feeds into this system. The majority of this
activity may stay to our southwest however it's possible that it
could clip southeast Kansas and far SW Missouri overnight.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 220 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Will need to watch for any remnant outflow boundaries or mcvs
associated with overnight showers/storms Friday morning. Models
hint at redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across the area
during the afternoon hours Friday. Slightly higher wind fields and
an unstable airmass will lead to a conditional risk for a few
severe storms Friday into Friday night. The eastern half of the
area is favored at this time.

Additional shortwaves/impulses move down the northwest flow into
our area Saturday and Sunday with continuing chances for
overnight complexes of showers and storms with daytime remnants.
Timing and placement is hard to pinpoint at this juncture.

Summertime high pressure moves back in early next week. Models
suggest 850mb temps in the low to middle 20s celsius which will
likely correspond to highs in the low to middle 90s again for much
of the week. With abundant low level moisture present, heat index
values would likely climb over 100. This would also aid in
decreasing precipitation chances.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 611 am CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Today looks very similar to the last few days, with scattered
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours. Outside of
any thunderstorms, VFR can be expected. IFR is likely in and
around any thunderstorm activity.

Most thunderstorms should dissipate by sunset tonight.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Burchfield
long term...Burchfield
aviation...boxell

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