Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 231126
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 1259 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018
Strong sfc low pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the
east as a ridge of high pressure over the plains edges east.
Expect NW winds to gradually continue to diminish during this
period. A shortwave will move southeast into the area by 12z/6am
Wed but there is only a slight sfc reflection of this in pressure
fields and only minimal cloud cover this far south.
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 118 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018
Concerns this period are for fire weather Thursday and some rain
chances Friday night into Saturday.
Wednesday: looks quiet with a north-south oriented sfc ridge axis
moving through the region.
Thursday: south-southwest winds will increase as the sfc high
shifts east and low pressure moves into the High Plains. Daytime
highs in the upper 50s to around 60, afternoon humidity near 30
percent, and winds gusting to 30-35 mph over the western Missouri
Ozarks Highlands into west central MO and southeast Kansas will
heighten the fire danger. Our western cwfa missed out on
significant precip with the last storm. In any case, one hour lag
time grass/brush fuels will dry out quickly.
Friday-saturday: there is good agreement with guidance (other than
some minor timing differences) for this period with a sfc low
tracking well to the north and a trailing sfc front approaching
and moving through Fri night-Sat. Looks like we will see a good
chance for rain/light showers. Rainfall amounts don't look too
impressive with a lack overall moisture in a prefrontal highly
modified Gulf air mass.
Sunday-monday: looks quiet. A zonal west-east upper level flow
with a Pacific based air mass will keep temperatures near or
slightly above normal Sunday with a warming trend into Monday.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 526 am CST Tue Jan 23 2018
A large area of stratus remained over much of southern Missouri
this morning. The back edge of the clouds were over eastern
Kansas with some breaks near kjln. Northwest winds remained
somewhat gusty as well. Overall, expect flight conditions to
improve today as the MVFR cloud deck moves off to the east and the
pressure gradient slackens. Expect clearing from west to east
this morning with kjln being the first to see VFR conditions,
followed by kbbg and ksgf. Winds will slowly diminish, but remain
10 to 13 knots much of the day before dropping below 10 knots late
this afternoon or early evening.