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fxus63 ksgf 222112 
afdsgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
312 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

..very warm and breezy Thursday...Cooler weather returns for the
weekend...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 239 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Stubborn fog and cloud cover this morning held temperatures down
slightly this afternoon. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from
near 70 over the Eastern Ozarks to the upper 70s across far
western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Short term guidance like
the hrrr and rap show some patchy fog developing again late
tonight across south central Missouri into the Eastern Ozarks.
Will mention this but do not think it will be widespread or dense
like last night.

A front will try to slip southward tonight but stall out as it
reaches the central Missouri area then lifting back northward
tomorrow morning. Model guidance show a slight chance for a shower
or two developing across eastern Kansas and moving northeastward
across west central Missouri tomorrow morning.

Surface low pressure begins to develop and deep across western
Kansas Thursday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds and very warm
temperatures will be in store for the entire area Thursday
afternoon.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 239 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A potent storm system will track northeastward across the upper
Midwest on Friday. A dryline followed by a cold front will move
through the area on Friday. With limited moisture and a strong
elevated mixed layer, rain chances will be very slim to none with
the passage of the front. There will be a locally significant
grassland fire weather concern Friday afternoon with relative humidity values
dropping and gust westerly winds. Future trends will need to be
monitored for possible headlines. Wind gusts may approach up to 40
mph Friday into Friday evening.

Cooler weather will follow Friday night through the weekend with
almost a 30 to 40 degree temperature drop compared to thursday's
temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s and highs in
the 40s and 50s. Another fast moving mid level wave will move
across the area Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a good
chance for light rain.

Another storm system will develop across the Central Plains
region on Thursday. This potential storm system might be something
to keep an eye on with moisture quality and instability from the
Gulf of Mexico along with upper level dynamics. There will be the
potential for thunderstorms but too early to say if any threat for
strong storms at this time. Storm total rainfall early next week
may range between 0.5 to 1.5 inches which is desperately needed
around this area. Temperatures will warm up early next week
followed by another cool down mid week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1128 am CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: some stratus is holding on at kbbg and ksgf,
but satellite data indicates rapid clearing so VFR conditions are
expected in the near term. A sfc front will approach from the
northwest and then stall just north of the area as low pressure
moves into Kansas. Some lower MVFR clouds/visibility may be possible
toward 10z-12z as low level moisture increases, but for the most
part did not go quite that pessimistic late in the taf period.



&&

Climate...
there will be the potential for additional record highs through
Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record highsfeb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin 87/199679/1982
Vichy- rolla76/1995 81/1982
West Plains 74/1988 82/1996

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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