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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild autumn weather will continue tonight into Wednesday as a
cold front approaches the region. The front extending from the
southern High Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon will
push southeastward and enter the Ozarks region Wednesday.
Scattered convection will develop across the plains tonight as
the low level jet interacts with the front. This activity could
make it into southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri late
tonight into early Wednesday morning.

A shortwave trough accompanying the front will makes its way
across the region during the day Wednesday. An increase in low
level moisture will occur ahead of the front with modest
instability developing. Mixed layer cape of around 1000 j/kg is
progged with deep layer shear of 30 to 40 kts. However relatively
weak synoptic scale lift and a veering wind profile will be
limiting factors to thunderstorm coverage and severity. However a
few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out mainly
across far southwestern Missouri.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mild weather will continue into Thursday despite the frontal
passage. Even warmer temperatures can be expected Friday as
gusty southerly winds return and an upper level ridge of high
pressure expands eastward. Highs Friday will top 80 degrees at
most locations.

The dry and warm weather pattern will persist into the weekend
with daily highs in the 70s. A frontal passage may bring a chance
of showers to the area Tuesday. Model solutions vary going into
the middle and later part of next week ranging from a continuation
of the relatively quiet weather or potentially a more active
weather pattern.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of tonight. A cold
front will then approach the area Wednesday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected out ahead of that front
with MVFR conditions expected around storms.

The threat for storms will then continue into the late afternoon
as that front begins to enter the region. There is then increasing
potential for lowering ceilings/visibilities Wednesday night
behind that front. Springfield may see MVFR by 06z, however most
of the MVFR (and possible ifr) should hold off until later
Wednesday night.

Surface winds will remain out of the south to southwest ahead of
that front with a shift to the north occurring behind the front
late Wednesday night.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Foster
long term...Foster

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