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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Upper level high is centered over the Desert Southwest while a
trough is traversing the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon.
At the surface...a weak front extends from southeast Missouri into
northwest Arkansas and into western Oklahoma. A weak impulse
traveling through the upper level flow is interacting with the
front to produce an area of thunderstorms over northeastern

Expect thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the front this
afternoon and continue to around Sundown. Models are continuing to
hint at the possibility of an mesoscale convective system developing over the Central
Plains overnight and moving into the area towards morning. Will
need to continue to monitor this evening.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The upper level pattern pendulum looks to be swinging back the
other way next week. A series of short waves along the US-Canadian
border will allow the western high to once again build into the
northern plains and then into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday.
In addition...the upper level high will expand eastward back into
the Southern Plains by mid week.

At the surface...the front that is draped across the region will
begin moving northward as a warm front. This will keep a mention
of at least least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through
at least Tuesday.

As high pressure both at the surface and aloft build back into the
area...this means a return to the hot and humid conditions of a
couple of weeks ago. While temperatures will remain near seasonal
levels...the added soil moisture from last week's rains will
increase humidity levels across the region. Right now...heat index
values will be on the increase Monday. Still some uncertainty for
heat on Monday with clouds/rain chances in the area. Heat index
values will reach a peak in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame with most
areas above 100 degrees and some areas will be approaching 105.

As another short wave makes its way across the northern plains
late in the week...the models are forecasting a surface front to
make it as far south as central Missouri by Saturday. This will
once again increase our rain chances.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Convection was developing north of a frontal boundary over western
Kansas late this evening. Short term models continue to expand
this convection overnight as the low level jet intensifies over
the next several hours with the convection eventually moving into
the area after 09z. Convection should then spread eastward into
the remainder of the area on Sunday morning. Additional convection
will be possible during the afternoon should sufficient
instability develop in the wake of the morning convection.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...gaede
long term...gaede

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