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fxus63 ksgf 262311 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

issued at 237 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Upper pattern remains quite active and will continue this trend
through the 7 day period with another shortwave pushing into the
West Coast every couple of days or so. The shortwave which brought
convection to the area the past couple of days has shifted to the
east into the Ohio Valley, while the next shortwave was shifting
into southwest Kansas.

Surface low was located over the OK Panhandle region as of 19z
with a dry line extending south out of the low. Dew point axis
extended from East Texas where readings were in the mid 60s to south
central OK with readings in the low to mid 50s. Parameters are in
place for a decent severe weather event across the central into
the Southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Across our cwa,
the setup is not as good, but can't rule out some hail potential
late this evening/overnight. This will be the main forecast
challenge for short term.


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 237 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

For tonight, should see low level jet start to crank up between
00z and 03z across the southwest County Warning Area and could see some elevated
convection develop by mid evening across the western County Warning Area. Shear
profiles look pretty decent, but thermodynamics are not overly
impressive. The best severe chances will remain south and
southwest of the area through Monday. Upper level energy from the
open wave will begin to spread east into the area late this
evening and overnight and should see convection increase in
coverage over the area to the east overnight into Monday. Can't
rule out some elevated hailers in the southwest part of the County Warning Area
where there will eventually be some elevated instability.

The surface low will track east tonight and then northeast across
the County Warning Area on Monday with the southeast 1/3 of the County Warning Area getting the
best instability and surface dewpoint returns from mid morning
into the mid afternoon hours. Can't rule out some strong to
possibly severe convection during this time frame across the
Eastern Ozarks. The main shortwave should exit to the east during
the late afternoon with no remaining convection by the early
evening. Temperatures will range from the low 60s in the west to
around 70 in the southeast County Warning Area.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 237 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Monday night into Tuesday evening look to be mostly dry with the
next system showing more of a slower closed system starting to
develop precipitation late Tuesday night in an area of divergence
ahead of the closed low. Most of the instability Tuesday night
should remain south and southwest of the area so thunder chances
will be small at the onset. Wednesday into Thursday look to be wet
across the area with periods of showers and thunderstorms as the
upper low slowly track across the region. Some instability does
make it into southern MO, but most of the instability remains
across the Southern Plains and lower MS valley. Believe severe
chances at this point will be on the low side, but may extend into
far southern MO.

Most of the activity should end by Thursday night but another
upper wave will be digging into the western U.S. By that time.
This system is expected to close off over the southern rockies
with showers/thunder expanding to the east ahead of the system
late Saturday night into Sunday. Models still have
timing/positioning differences with this system, so the forecast
will likely need to be refined as we get closer in time.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 607 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Pilots can expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms later
tonight into Monday morning as a storm system approaches the
region. Ceilings will lower overnight and Monday morning as low
level moisture increases and visibility will be impacted at times
in precipitation. Pilots can expect MVFR conditions to become
more prevalent by Monday morning.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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