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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

..12z aviation update...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 208 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A mostly clear sky and a moist ground from previous rainfall was
aiding in patchy fog early this morning. Fog will erode with
daytime heating this morning. The area remains within a weak mid
level shear axis with a low level front just to the south of the
area. A couple other features are in play for the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Temperatures will
remain seasonable.

One feature is with an area of showers and storms across
southcentral Nebraska. A remnant mesoscale convective vortex or outflow boundary will
likely enter or be close to the area during the morning hours.
Another feature is the upper level energy across Louisiana moving
northward. Expectations are that as morning heating commences,
showers and thunderstorms will develop in a similar fashion to Tuesday.
The general focus looks to be along and south of Interstate 44 due
to the better proximity to the front and energy. However
locations further north could still experience isolated activity
especially if the Nebraska remnant mesoscale convective vortex/outflow move in. Similar
to Tuesday, a limited flooding risk will be mentioned due to a
high moisture content and slow storm motions. Wind shear looks
weak today and just not expecting severe thunderstorms.

The activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating. However another
complex of thunderstorms looks to develop across Nebraska into
Kansas again tonight and may enter western portions of the area by
early Thursday morning.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 208 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The Thursday through Sunday period looks rather unsettled as the
region will remain in northwest flow with nightly mcs's and
daytime scattered convection/remnants. While the placement of
these complexes will be a mesoscale challenge, it currently
appears that both Thursday and Friday nights there will be
complexes of showers and thunderstorms that generally affect the
southwest half of the area while complexes Saturday and Sunday
nights affect northeast half of the area. This is all in response
to a gradual movement of the upper level ridge eastward. While
widespread severe weather is not currently expected, there will be
an increase in wind shear therefore isolated bouts of severe
weather/damaging winds will be possible with some of the stronger
complexes of storms. Temperatures will remain seasonable through
the period.

The upper level ridge becomes entrenched over the area early next
week leading to the return to hot temperatures and dry
conditions.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 619 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the region today,
again focused across the southern portion of Missouri. Outside of
any thunderstorm activity, VFR will prevail. In and around
thunderstorms, expect IFR or even brief LIFR with low cigs and
very heavy rain.

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage this evening, though a
few isolated storms may persist overnight. Additional thunderstorm
activity is then expected Thursday.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Burchfield
long term...Burchfield
aviation...boxell

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