Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 ksgf 202051 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 245 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Surface low pressure is located across the Western Plains this
afternoon. Ahead of the area of low pressure, gusty southerly
winds are occurring across the area. A much warmer air mass has
ushered into the area, as temperatures are currently in the upper
50s to middle 60s this afternoon.

Lows tonight will only cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Clouds will increase across the area tonight as low level moisture
continues to spread north into the area. Some patchy drizzle will
be possible across the area tonight into Sunday ahead of the
approaching storm system. Highs will top out in the 60s again on
Sunday as gusty southerly winds around 30mph occur.

A cold front will push east across the area Sunday evening into
Sunday night. As the surface and upper level lows push across the
plains, shear will increase across the region. Instability will
increase across the area but will not be overly strong Sunday.
However, given the strong shear there will be enough instability
present to support a marginal severe storm risk.

A line of showers and storms or line segments are expected to
develop along the front as it pushes into southeastern Kansas,
western Missouri, and northern Arkansas. The line/line segments
will then spread east northeast across the area. The primary risk
will be damaging winds as the hail risk will be low. 0-3km bulk
shear vectors will increase ahead of the front to 40-50kt to the
northeast. If any line segments surge to the east/northeast there
will be the potential for mesovorts developing and a short lived
spin up or two. The line of storms will push east of the area
during the overnight hours.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 245 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The upper level low will move across the area on Monday, resulting
in some light rain occurring during the day. Cooler conditions
will spread into the area with highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s behind the system through mid week.. highs will then climb
back into the 50s with lows in the 30s late week into next weekend.

An upper level trough may then sweep through the region late in
the week into next weekend allowing additional chances for rain
to develop across the area.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1130 am CST Sat Jan 20 2018

MVFR cloud deck will gradually break up and lift this afternoon.
Gusty southerly winds will occur through this afternoon through

MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings will return tonight as moisture
continues to spread north ahead of an approaching storm system.
Some patchy drizzle may be possible overnight.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations