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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

Update...
issued at 539 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Have bumped up pops for a few hours across parts of south central
Missouri around the convection that is neary stationary and in the
southwest corner of Missouri. Should start to see diminishing
trends in a few hours.

&&

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms have once again developed this afternoon
across portions of the Missouri Ozarks. Most of the storms have
been focused near areas of differential heating. We expect
scattered storms to continue into early this evening as cold pools
begin to spread out. Given abnormally high amounts of atmospheric
moisture and slow storm motions, the threat for localized flash
flooding will persist.

The coverage of storms will then decrease from mid to late
evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms will remain possible
overnight as upper level short wave energy approaches from the
northwest. However, we are not seeing the low/mid level isentropic
upglide signals that we have seen the last few nights. Low
temperatures should once again be in the lower 70s.

Scattered storms are again expected on Thursday as that short wave
trough moves southeast across the area. The best coverage for
storms will again be along and south of the I-44 corridor. High
temperatures may be a bit warmer with highs expected to be in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

We are continuing to see a signal for the development of a
mesoscale convective system (mcs) diving southeast across the
Central Plains Thursday night. This system may clip portions of
extreme southeastern Kansas and potentially far western Missouri.

We will then remain in a northwesterly flow aloft into this
weekend. Models indicate multiple short wave troughs dropping
southeast across the region through Sunday night. This will keep
the chance for thunderstorms going both during the heating of the
day and also due to nocturnal mesoscale convective system activity.

Upper level high pressure will then build back over the region
from the early to middle portions of next week. This will decrease
the chances for thunderstorms and will result in a warming trend.
We are likely looking at heat indices getting back over the
century mark.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 539 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Two main convective clusters were outside of the terminals,
although the western one was fairly close to the jln terminal and
have mentioned thunderstorms in the vicinity at the onset of the 00z taf for a couple of
hours. May see some light fog develop at bbg overnight with a calm
wind and some boundary level moisture. Additional thunderstorm
development possible with the increase in instability on Thursday
afternoon warrants a prob30 at the taf sites.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

Update...lindenberg
short term...schaumann
long term...schaumann
aviation...lindenberg

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