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fxus63 ksgf 240506 
afdsgf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1106 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Update...
issued at 934 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Some showers with a few claps of thunder have developed across
portions of southeast Kansas this evening. This is in response to
quite a bit of low level convergence (surface low, warm front, and
even a dryline in oklahoma). Additionally, a 40-50kt low level jet is also
helping, however, the 00z radiosonde observation here locally shows a very dry
boundary layer. Regardless, there is just enough elevated
instability and lift to aid in the development of a few updrafts.

Went ahead and added isolated thunder to the forecast this
evening generally west of the i49 corridor. There is some question
how far north and east this complex of showers/t'storms as well
as isolated development in NE Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas will end up,
however, given the poor boundary layer conditions across the MO
Ozarks it will be tough for this activity to make it as for as the
Highway 65 corridor.

&&

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The unseasonably warm weather will continue into the evening ahead
of surface low pressure that will track across southern Kansas
toward west central Missouri. The warm sector is progged to remain
capped in advance of the trailing cold front. Therefore
development of any convection is not expected at this time.

The cold front will push across the Missouri/Kansas border after
midnight and all of the area by midday Friday. There is an outside
chance that isolated showers could develop across the Eastern
Ozarks Friday morning but dry frontal passage is generally
expected.

Cold air advection following the frontal passage will cause
temperatures to steady off if not fall during the day Friday. The
falling dewpoints and gusty winds up to 30 mph will result in at
least a limited fire weather risk.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 230 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A cooler and more seasonable airmass will settle over the area
Friday night and Saturday as surface high pressure builds into the
region.

Southerly flow returns Sunday as high pressure shifts off to the
east while a more zonal upper air patter unfolds. A minor
shortwave riding through this flow will bring a chance of light
rain Sunday into early Monday. A few flakes of snow may mix with
the rain as precipitation begins early Sunday and as it ends early
Monday. No accumulation is expected.

Any active weather will remain in place going into next week. A
pronounced upper level trough will take shape out west early next
week and transition eastward with time. Medium range models
continue to differ on the details on the evolution of this system
and the corresponding chance of rain. As it stands now it appears
a good chance of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. The forecast confidence
during this time period is low. Temperatures will be closer
seasonal averages heading into next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1102 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Scattered showers/thunderstorms developing ahead of low pressure
system and on low level jet across west central into southwest
Missouri. Very dry low levels (sgf 00z sounding), but enough
elevated instability for some thunder. Have gone with some vcsh
wording in the 06z tafs at sgf/jln at the onset. Front should work
its way through the area overnight with surface winds becoming
west then northwest by morning and will continue with gusts
through the day Friday. Some stratus behind the front could lower
ceilings into the MVFR category for a bit towards morning and into
Friday morning.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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