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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
516 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Synopsis...
issued at 158 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

High pressure was southeast of the County Warning Area early this morning and
surface winds have been out of the south this evening and so far
overnight. Had temperatures in the Eastern Ozarks dip into the
upper 20s to low 30s earlier in the evening with a dry airmass and
light wind, but readings have recovered into the mid 30s most
locations. Further west, temperatures remain in the low 40s.

Main forecast focus will be with gusty wind and low humidity
levels today leading to elevated fire weather conditions. Much of
the remainder of the Holiday week/weekend should be hazard free.

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 158 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

For today, temperatures should rebound back into the upper 50s to
low 60s and have gone closer to the consmos readings which were
higher. Pressure gradient really tightens up with departing
surface ridge and the next shortwave advancing towards the area.
Wind gusts of 25 to 35 will be possible over the northwest half of
the County Warning Area today, especially from late morning through the afternoon.
When combined with humidity levels dipping into the 30 to 35
percent range this afternoon, will see widespread elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon, with some spotty areas possibly
approaching red flag conditions over western MO and extreme
southeast Kansas. Pressure gradient will remain fairly tight in
advance of the next shortwave tonight so will likely see gustiness
continue tonight. The front will not make it into the area
tonight, so overnight lows will be more mild in the low to mid 40s
with steady southerly winds.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 158 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The front will move through on Tuesday with a good push of colder
air behind the front, so temperatures will probably fall behind
the front. Will still have temperatures back in the mid 50s north
to low 60s south prior to the front moving through. It looks
pretty cold on Tuesday night as the cold air advects in with the
Canadian high pressure system. Lows will likely dip into the mid
20s across most of the area. Wednesday will also be chilly with
highs only in the low to mid 40s.

The main upper level trough axis will shift east of the area
Wednesday night and we should see upper level rising heights as
ridging nudges eastward. That with low level warm advection will
start a warming trend, with highs in the 50s on Thanksgiving day
and in the 60s on Friday.

Another front will move through on Friday night, but again,
moisture will be lacking and we are not expecting any
precipitation. Highs for Saturday will back down into the 50s and
by Sunday, back into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 510 am CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR will continue through tonight with a few high clouds. Brisk
and gusty southwest surface winds will develop this morning with
gusts around 30 knots continuing into this evening. Low level
wind shear conditions are then expected tonight.

&&

Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...none.
Kansas...none.
&&

$$

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