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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
447 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Breezy southwest winds will diminish this evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. With the lower layers of the
atmosphere remaining dry, only expect mid and high level clouds to
accompany the front through the area.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will build across the region
Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will be some 10 degrees
cooler on Saturday, but still remaining above normal for late
November with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

As the high settles over the area Saturday night, light winds and
clear skies will drop temperatures rather quickly after sunset, and
bottom out in the lower to middle 30s by early Sunday morning.
Southerly winds begin to return to the area Sunday as the high
slides east. This will allow a warm-up back into the lower 60s by
Sunday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 235 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Biggest concern for impactful weather in this time frame will be
centered on Monday when strong winds and fire weather concerns are
heightened. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next weather
system. Strong southerly winds, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph and
lower relative humidity values on Monday afternoon will lead to
elevated fire weather concerns.

Medium range models in better agreement as we head into the middle
of next week. A compact shortwave is expected to translate across
Kansas and through Missouri from Tuesday night through Wednesday,
dragging a surface cold front through the area. Still some question
on exact timing of these features, but this will be the best chance
for seeing measurable rainfall.

Models diverge for Thursday and Friday, with European model (ecmwf) showing mid
level ridging building across the plains, while GFS brings
another shortwave towards the area, possibly bringing another
chance for rain. So, lots of uncertainty for the end of the week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 435 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight through
Saturday. A cold front will push across the region tonight causing
surface winds to shift to the northwest.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...

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