Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 261150
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
650 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Short term...(today and tonight)
Showers were developing this morning along a mid level baroclinic
zone stretching across southern Missouri. This activity is
expected to persist through most of the morning, and potentially
into the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a surface front will be approaching the region from the
north, which will also trigger showers and even some
thunderstorms. We will introduce a limited risk for an organized
storm or two. Deep layer shear of about 40 knots will be
sufficient for a limited hail risk. Instability will be modest,
although the NAM 12 suggests 2000 j/kg developing across southwest
Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening.
For tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms could persist as the
surface front moves slowly through southern Missouri. We don't
think there will be a large areal coverage of precipitation. Look
for overnight lows to fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
Northwest flow will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing
mostly dry and warm conditions to the Ozarks.
Precipitation chances will increase across central Missouri
Wednesday through Thursday night as a frontal system settles
across northern Missouri. Eventually this feature shifts deep into
the Ozarks Friday afternoon and night, likely bringing a
widespread risk of thunderstorm activity. As a matter of fact, the
cape - shear combination indicated by the models would recommend
a decent hail and wind risk with the most intense storms.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) paints an interesting pattern for Saturday and
Sunday, showing the surface front stalling over northern Arkansas
or southern Missouri, conducive to both a severe weather and
flash flood risk through the weekend.
Anyone with outdoor plans over the upcoming 4th of July weekend
should monitor later forecasts and statements issued by the
National Weather Service regarding the increasing risk for active
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 645 am CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: small areas of showers will occasionally
move from Kansas into southwest MO during the taf period. High
cloud bases will keep ceilings VFR.