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FXUS63 KSGF 221134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
534 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The line of showers and storms that produced severe winds and a
possible tornado, was moving across the eastern Ozarks and the 
Mark Twain National Forest early this morning. This area of 
convection will continue to move east and be well east of the 
Ozarks by sunrise. 

Behind this mornings storms, southwesterly winds will begin to
increase through the days as an area of surface low pressure,
nearly stacked with an upper level low, moves across northern 
Missouri. Winds are expected to become gusty through this
afternoon as temperatures fall through the day into the 40s and
continue to drop into the 30s tonight. Sustained winds will be
from 10 to 20mph with gusts from 25 to 35mph at times. Some areas
west of Highway 65 may near wind advisory levels, but will watch 
this as things progress through the day. 

As the stacked lows move east models are wrapping some moisture 
around it and into the Ozarks. Locations across central Missouri
will have the best chance of seeing this light precipitation
though most area will have a least a slight chance to see some 
showers or light rain. As the low slides east tonight, a cold
airmass will slide into the region dropping temperatures into the
upper 20s. This may allow for some change over or mix with snow or
freezing rain. Again the best chances for this to occur will be
across Central Missouri and the lakes region. If the change over
occurs, a glaze of ice may occur on elevated surfaces however
confidence is on the low side for this currently. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper level northwesterly flow will
keep the Ozarks more seasonable with highs in the 40s and
overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. This will be despite
mostly sunny skies. 

An upper level ridge will slide across the area for Thursday 
which will bring a brief warm up and a pattern shift to the area.
This will occur as southerly winds again bring warmer and more 
moist air into the Ozarks. A cold front is then expected to 
through the region Friday into Saturday and bring another round of
precipitation to the area. The primary portion of this end of 
week system will move across the northern plains. As a result, the
precipitation will be lighter with most of it east of the area 
before cold temperatures filter into the area. 

The weekend looks cooler as a result of the frontal passage with
highs in the 40s Saturday and the upper 30s on Sunday.  


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The primary concern for aviator to start today across the Ozarks 
will be gusty surface winds. Winds will gust at time to 40 mph.
Low stratus will move over the region by mid day bringing MVFR
ceilings. Showers will develop and impact the region through this
evening though no impact to visibilities are expected.  




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