Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 271743
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 am CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Short term...(today and tonight)
Conditions were fairly mild overnight as temperatures dropped into
the 30s. We did have some dense fog developing in the Osage
Plains. Therefore we've decided to issue a dense fog advisory for
portions of southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.
This fog should burn off by mid to late morning, setting the stage
for much warmer temperatures. Look for highs in the 60s, with
moisture advecting in from the Gulf.
This moisture advection could bring some showers and a thunderstorm
or two today. Some of the sseo signals from Storm Prediction Center was suggesting
chances for convection in southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri this afternoon. Given the shear - cape combination, we
could experience organization with any storms that fire. Therefore
we will include a severe risk for hail for late this afternoon
into the overnight period.
The overnight period could feature storm potential in all areas,
particularly far southern Missouri. Tonight's lows will only drop
into the 50s.
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
Continued warm air advection is expected on Tuesday as
temperatures warm well into the 70s. This increase in moisture and
instability will set the stage for some organized storms Tuesday
It remains to be determined if storms will fire within the warm
sector. If they do, then we can expect those storms to be quite
severe in nature given the high shear and moderate instability
that will be present. However, the nam12 suggests that the warm
sector will remain capped, until the actual cold front surges into
southern Missouri to trigger storms. These storms could also be
severe, with a large hail and damaging wind risk.
Storms are expected to exit the region by Wednesday. The Wednesday
through Sunday period looks dry and mild. Temperatures by next
weekend will warm back into the 60s.
Wave 5 analysis shows an anomalous ridge popping over the Rocky
Mountains, and nosing well into south central Canada. This regime
would offer above normal temperatures for the Ozarks, along with
limited rain chances through the extended and getting into mid
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1143 am CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Scattered showers and few storms will be possible this afternoon
across the area, but at this time did not mention any convection
in the tafs as coverage will not be widespread. A brief
shower/rumble of thunder will be possible this afternoon the
question is does any of this activity affect a taf site again as
it will be scattered in nature. This activity will spread north of
the taf sites by this evening. Then additional scattered storms
will be possible late this evening into tonight across south
central Missouri generally east of the taf sites, but there is an
outside chance the kbbg/ksgf sites could get clipped.
Gusty southerly winds will develop and help to pull increased
moisture into the region. As the moisture returns ceilings will
start to lower late this afternoon into the overnight hours. MVFR
to IFR ceilings will be possible.