Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 161120
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018
Short term...(today and tonight)
An Arctic blast of air filtered into extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks overnight. Temperatures responded by falling
into the lower single digits. Winds chill values ranged from -10
to -20 degrees below zero.
Despite sunshine today, not much of a warm up is expected this
afternoon as temperatures may reach 9 to 12 degrees. Northerly
breezes will persist the entire day.
No additional snowfall is expected as this activity has shifted
well into Arkansas and Tennessee.
For tonight, bitterly cold readings are once again expected with
overnight lows in the lower single digits. Thankfully wind speeds
will be light tonight, mitigating wind chills from getting out of
Long term...(wednesday through monday)
By tomorrow, the upper trough forcing Arctic air through the
Ozarks will begin to progress east. Height rises along with a
return of southwest flow at the surface will commence. With
sunshine expected on Wednesday, temperatures are expected to warm
back into the middle and upper 20s.
This warming trend will continue as a major pattern change occurs
by Thursday and Friday. Upper level flow becomes more zonal and
southerly winds at the surface continues. The Arctic air will
finally advect out of the Ozarks, boosting temperatures into the
40s on Thursday, and 50s on Friday.
A powerful storm system organizes across the Great Basin heading
into the weekend. This will strengthen southerly flow across the
Ozarks, bringing in a Gulf airmass higher in moisture content.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon respond by warming into the 60s.
As the storm system approaches on Sunday, showers and even
thunderstorms are expected. There is a signal for a cold season
episode of organized thunderstorms, however, I will not mention
this in the severe weather potential statement yet until we see some consistency or even some
increases in model derived cape values ahead of the system. This
is something to key in on over the next few days. Could be looking
at a possible qlcs set up given the structure of the trough and
the strong forcing that occurs on it's leading edge.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
An Arctic airmass had spread across the region, bringing
temperatures down into the single digits this morning.
Northerly breezes will persist through much of the day. No
obstructions to visibilities or low ceilings expected.
MO...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for moz055>058-066>071-
Kansas...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for ksz073-097-101.