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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Short term...(this evening through friday)

A few showers were impacting portions of southeast Kansas and west
central Missouri this afternoon, in response to the approach of
an upper cold core low. The short range models suggest that this
activity will continue to dissipate through the afternoon. Some
light rain could make it as far south as Springfield, but that
seems unlikely at this time.

Regarding tonight, skies will clear from the northwest helping to
bring temperatures down into the upper 30s by early tomorrow
morning. Some locations nested deep within the Ozark terrain could
fall into the middle 30s, and experience some light frost.
Therefore we will mention light frost in sheltered areas within
the severe weather potential statement and situation report. No precipitation is expected in
tonight's period.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)

A big ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the
nation's midsection from the west on Friday. This will start an
extended period of warm and dry weather for the Ozarks.
Temperatures will still be cool on Friday, however, by Saturday we
should experience readings in the 70s.

Sun and southerly breezes will boost temperatures into the middle
and even upper 70s Sunday through Tuesday on an afternoon basis.

Our next chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur
Tuesday night through Wednesday. A shortwave trough will force a
Pacific based cold front through the Ozarks. From a perfect prog
standpoint, this wave will be rather progressive, and temperatures
shouldn't drop much behind the front.

The extended models indicate another large ridge to build back in
toward the end of next week, bring more warm and dry weather.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1159 am CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

For the ksgf, kjln, kbbg tafs: VFR conditions are expected at taf
sites this afternoon through Friday morning.

The low level stratus deck currently over the kbbg site is
expected to scattered out by the start of the taf period then
lift early this afternoon. Clouds will increase from the north
this afternoon, but will remain in the VFR range.

Northerly winds will be gusty this afternoon as a colder air mass
spreads into the region. Skies will clear out by this evening and
winds will weaken overnight.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Cramer
long term...Cramer

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