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fxus63 ksgf 100517 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1117 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 222 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

For tonight, surface high pressure will gradually slide to the
east and will see a return to a light southerly wind across the
County Warning Area by the overnight hours. Coldest readings will be out east
where the best radiational cooling will take place. Saturday
should prove to be warmer and could see some mid 40s for highs in
the western County Warning Area as a warm air advection pattern sets up in the
lower atmosphere.

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 222 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

As the warm air advection increases in magnitude on Saturday
night, may see some drizzle or light rain begin to develop ahead
of a frontal system in the western County Warning Area. This precipitation will
spread east across the County Warning Area during the morning and may begin
briefly as some light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in
the far eastern sections of the County Warning Area. This chance at wintry
precipitation will not be long-lived as temperatures should warm
above freezing at the surface by mid morning. A better chance of
measurable rainfall will occur during the afternoon hours as the
cold front moves through. Temperature profiles would support all
rain with this round of precipitation which should end by

Colder and drier air will again work into the area behind the
front for Sunday and Monday, although this air mass will be fairly
shallow as temperatures at 850 mb will remain above freezing.

Models are still in disarray from the middle to end of next week
with the strength of colder air and with precipitation chances.
GFS continues to be more bullish on both counts than the European model (ecmwf)
which gives a glancing blow of the colder air and not much in the
way of wintry precipitation. Will continue to mention wintry
precipitation in products and will have to monitor situation over
the next couple/few forecast cycles to see if models begin to grab
on to a more consistent solution.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals tonight into
Saturday. A cloud deck with ceilings around 5000 feet will impact
the area tonight with considerable cloud cover lingering
Saturday. Lower ceilings are expected to develop Saturday night
into Sunday.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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