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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 301 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Northwest flow will continue through the short term. The implications
will likely be the same as we've seen over the last several days
with convective development with passing mid-level impulses.
Think that the better t'storm potential will likely be over
southern MO and southeast Kansas higher instability values reside
along with a weak surface boundary.

As one would expect with the precipitation chances, temperatures
will once again be kept right around or slightly under what we'd
tend to expect for late July across the region.

Overnight tonight and into early Sunday a mesoscale convective system is still expected
to develop over the Central Plains. This complex of t'storms
should push close to or fully into the region (timing and exact
placement are a bit uncertain at the moment). At this juncture,
widespread severe weather isn't anticipated, however, strong wind
gusts may accompany any stronger cells that develop.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 301 am CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Precipitation and clouds will likely be hanging around at least
through the morning on Sunday in response to the aforementioned
mesoscale convective system. Additional shower and thunderstorms will remain possible
during the afternoon and evening hours as another mid level vort
moves across the region.

Yet another mid-level vort will swing southward along the
Mississippi River late Sunday into Monday bringing a shot at
rain/storms to the eastern portions of the Ozarks and central
Missouri. This will likely be the last "relatively decent"
potential for rain before a pattern shift takes place as we begin
the new workweek.

The upper level ridge that was present last week bringing hot
and humid conditions will once again move eastward back closer to
our region. This will cause temperatures to once again warm into
the lower to middle 90s. Given the rainy period this week, think
that temperatures will certainly not warm as high as they
would otherwise due to higher soil moisture content, however,
higher humidity values will cause heat indices to warm well into
the into the 100s for many of US through the end of the week.
Although we can't rule out a rogue storm or two in this pattern,
the rain chances will be rather low.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

For the ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: some isolated shower/thunderstorm may
be possible over the next few hours, but chances and coverage are
in some question so will amend tafs as trends dictate. Somewhat
better chances for rain will occur late in the taf period as a
upper level disturbance moves across the area. Outside of storms
expected VFR conditions.


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Frye
long term...Frye

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