Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 ksgf 251128
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017
Short term...(today and tonight)
A mid level baroclinic zone was forcing a few showers over central
Kansas this morning. This activity was trying to move into the
Ozarks, however, radar trends are suggesting that this activity is
We think this trend will continue, so will keep pops out of the
forecast for now. Can't rule out a sprinkle or two in Bourbon or
Vernon counties, but nothing measurable is expected.
For today, temperatures should be a bit warmer than yesterday with
readings in the low to mid 80s. Mostly sunny skies and light winds
Temperatures will once again fall into the 50s and lower 60s
tonight. The same zone of baroclinicity will set up across eastern
Kansas and southern Missouri tonight. We could see a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms develop along this area. Therefore
we'll have chance pops going in some areas tonight. No severe
weather is expected.
Long term...(monday through saturday)
Showers and isolated thunderstorms could continue into Monday due
to the previously mentioned mid level front that becomes
established across southern Missouri. Models don't generate much
instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.
From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of
a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are
expected through the mid week period.
Weak upper zonal flow evolves through the week, and eventually
repositions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will
temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances
As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms
through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning.
Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe
risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be
sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.
The Fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being
somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans
for participating in outdoor activities should monitor later
forecasts regarding thunderstorm activity this weekend.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 622 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017
Ksgf/kjln/kbbg tafs: weak sfc high pressure will remain near/over
the area through the taf period. Upper level disturbances will
bring periods of VFR ceilings along with some low end chances for
showers/tstms late in the taf period after 06z.