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fxus63 ksgf 161047 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

issued at 220 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

We will continue freeze and frost headlines this morning as the
coldest air so far this season grips the Missouri Ozarks and
southeast Kansas. The main forecast challenge this morning is
where the frost line will cut off. Current GOES infrared imagery shows
a deck of high cirrus streaming into the region from the south
this morning. These high-level clouds are generally staying along
and south of I-44. Such a feature may provide enough insulation
to mitigate the frost threat, as diurnal cooling is lessened in
areas south of I-44.

Nonetheless, all of southwest Missouri is waking up to
temperatures in the 30s. Frost and a light freeze remain highly
likely in most locations north of I-44, and with temperatures at
or slightly below freezing, these same locations will be
approaching record lows!


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 220 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A cut-off low, currently over the Great Basin, will suppress the
weather pattern through mid-week as deep southwest flow over the
Mexican plateau advects warm air into the Southern Plains. This
will ultimately lead to height rises and the establishment of an
upper-level ridge over the Central Plains. Look for this process
to occur as early as tonight.

At the surface, an area of Canadian high pressure will continue to
build into the region today. Temperatures will recover into the
mid- to- upper 50s this afternoon as the absence of cloud cover
and wind allows temperatures to warm diurnally. For tonight,
temperatures will crash into the mid-to-upper 30s.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 220 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday as the upper-
level ridge, and its associated surface high pressure, moves
slowly through the Central Plains. Temperatures will be in the
lower 60s each day as downslope winds over the northern plains
cause compressional warming over the Ozarks.

The upper-level ridge axis will gradually move eastward and
flatten out as the cut-off low over the Great Basin opens up and
ejects shortwave energy into the upper-Midwest. Our next best
chance for rain comes Friday morning as a surface low-pressure
system strengthens over the Hudson Bay and drags a cold front all
the way through the Ozarks. Rainfall amounts may be highly efficient
and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out for Friday
afternoon as a weak surface wave, with deep moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico, rides along the front. While instability does not look
impressive Friday afternoon, pwats will be north of 1.5".

Behind friday's frontal passage, surface high pressure will sprawl
over the central Continental U.S. As an anomalous ridge builds over the
western-pac. Thus, expect quiet weather with temperatures near
their seasonal norms this weekend.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 539 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Fair weather and VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
through the taf period as surface high pressure builds across the
Missouri Ozarks. There will be some high cirrus, however.

Surface winds will be westerly around 5 kts through this


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories...
MO...frost advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for moz070-071-

Freeze warning until 9 am CDT this morning for moz055>058-

Kansas...freeze warning until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz073-097-101.



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