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FXUS61 KRNK 252318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
618 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A cold front will continue to push east of the area and 
offshore this evening. High pressure will build in from the west
overnight into Sunday before passing off the southeast coast
later Sunday night and Monday. A warm front will lift northeast
toward the region early next week resulting in an increasing 
chance of showers by Tuesday into Wednesday.

As of 320 PM EST Saturday...

The cold front/line of convection will move east of the piedmont and 
away from the forecast area by 4PM, therefore we will cancel the 
severe thunderstorm watch #39. As the cold front tracks to the coast 
this evening, modest pressure rises and a 45kt cross barrier jet 
will bring breezy conditions to the region. Winds will begin to 
subside over the piedmont after midnight but remain breezy across 
the mountains, especially along the Blue Ridge where subsidence will 
be the greatest. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible this evening. High 
pressure builds in by noon Sunday allowing the winds to subside.

An upper level trough will pivot over the Ohio Valley to the Mid 
Atlantic region overnight. A short wave axis and lingering low level 
moisture may produce light snow across Western Greenbrier this 
evening. Flow becomes zonal after midnight and trajectories are lost 
from the Great Lakes to end snow showers shortly after midnight. Dry 
high pressure will keep the area dry with clear skies Sunday.

Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s across the mountains 
and lower 30s east of the Blue Ridge. Believe it or not, these 
temperatures are normal for this time of year. Couple the cold 
temperatures and wind, Sunday morning temperatures will feel like 
they are in the teens across the mountains and low 20s in the east. 
Once the wind relaxes, abundant sunshine will help warm temperatures 
into the mid 40s west to mid 50s east.


As of 230 PM EST Saturday...

High pressure heads off the coast Sunday night. A warm front lifts 
north across us Monday into Tuesday bringing a threat of rain, 
albeit low chance as main low and energy stay over the midwest. 
Temperatures warm back to above seasonal levels Tuesday as we get 
into the warm sector.


As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

Not much change from previous forecast. Will see upper trough move 
east to the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A strong cold front moves 
across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperature slide 
back to normal or below normal as we dry out Friday into Saturday.


As of 615 PM EST Saturday...

Cold front and associated moisture now east of the region with
ongoing drying leading to VFR under gusty winds to start this
evening. Strong subsidence along with deepening cold advection
should then keep winds gusty across the mountains overnight 
into Sunday morning, while speeds subside east of the ridges 
later this evening. Upslope clouds under the passing cold pool 
may spill far enough south to result in a return to low end VFR 
cigs for KBLF/KLWB later this evening with ocnl MVFR possible 
overnight. However quite uncertain to the extent of the cloud 
cover and any snow showers given ongoing mixing and dry air. For
now will include some cigs western mountains overnight but keep
them VFR until seeing just how expansive the canopy may become.

Otherwise high pressure to build in overnight and Sunday before
sliding offshore by Monday. This looks to keep VFR under 
overall light winds in place from Sunday into early next week 
with perhaps some increase in mid/high clouds by Monday. 

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A warm front is expected to lift northeast toward the region 
Monday night into Tuesday before passing to the north on 
Wednesday. This will keep a threat of showers in place  
including periods of sub-VFR Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold 
front pushes east into the area late Wednesday into Wednesday 
night with potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR in showers 
until the boundary exits the area early Thursday. Strong 
northwest winds along with mountain sub-VFR in upslope low 
clouds and light precip will likely follow the front for much of
Thursday. Expect downslope drying to return VFR to eastern 
locations by Thursday afternoon. 




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