Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krnk 171834
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
234 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017
high pressure will remain across the area through Friday.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
as of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...
Beautiful October blue skies today will stay clear tonight, as
high pressure stays fixed over the area, more centered over the
Piedmont than the mountains. With another day of drying out the
low levels, should see less fog than this morning but with
dewpoints in the 30s, and good radiational conditions, expect
frost to from across most of the forecast area, but more
specifically in rural/farmland areas/pastures and river and
mountain valleys. Urban areas like Lynchburg/Roanoke and
Danville should stay frost free, outside some patches here and
Lows tonight will be in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in
the mountain valleys, but not enough coverage of 32 or below for
a freeze warning. Those areas that can expect freezing
temperatures including Burkes Garden and portions of the
Greenbrier and New River valleys, so plan accordingly in terms
of plant protection.
Not much change Wednesday with high pressure in control. A few
models show some cirrus moving overhead Wednesday morning as
upper flow turns more southwest with weak upper impulse moving
through. Otherwise sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s to near
70, except lower 60s higher ridges.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
as of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure will be centered over the mid-Atlantic region through
Thursday night. A very dry airmass will result in large
nocturnal/diurnal temperature swings. It will be mostly clear and
cold with light winds Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday
night into Thursday morning will range from the lower 30s in the
mountains to the lower 40s in the Piedmont. Bright sunshine expected
Thursday with low minimum humidity readings. However, winds will
remain light westerly. High temperatures Thursday will vary from the
around 60 in the mountains to the mid 70s in the Piedmont. Mostly
clear and cool conditions will prevail Thursday night into Friday
morning with low temperatures generally from the mid 30s in the west
to the lower 40s in the east.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
Amplified upper ridge over the southeast will continue dry and warm
weather heading into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday, the
ridge axis begins to move east as the trough deepens into the middle
of the country. The trough axis will move into the Ohio Valley
Monday and rotate eastward into Tuesday. The trough axis should be
located along the on Wednesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to
disagree on the depth and strength of trough and where to close off
a southern low. Despite the fact that the location is different,
both solutions showed a low closing off, upper flow turning more
southwest, and an influx of moisture. This should result in an
increasing chances of showers early next week.
Temperatures staying above normal through Sunday, then a cooling
trend expected Monday into Wednesday.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 105 PM EDT Tuesday...
Beautiful day for flying with clear skies and no restriction to
vsbys. A little bit of a northeast wind at roa around 10kts but
should lighten up by late afternoon.
High pressure is going to keep US VFR through the valid taf
period. Exceptions could be fog at lwb/bcb again late tonight
pending frost, but with another day of drying fog should be more
limited to over the rivers/lakes.
Extended aviation discussion...
High pressure will remain over the region for the week with VFR
weather through Saturday.
Virginia...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for vaz007-
NC...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for ncz001>004-
WV...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for wvz042>044-