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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
133 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

high pressure over the mid Atlantic slowly shifts east into
Thursday. The upper ridge will remain overhead through the end of
the workweek.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am EDT Wednesday...

High pressure will slowly move east through tonight. Mid and high
clouds associated with a weak wave aloft will spread east across
the region through midday. Moisture will increase this afternoon
with flow from the southwest at 8h. The combination of low level
convergence, solar heating and orographic lift may produce an
isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon across the western
mountains. The best chances will occur across the Southwest
Mountains. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the
mid 70s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Decreased
pops for the tonight and added mention of patchy valley fog
overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures
will vary from the around 60 degrees in the west to the mid 60s in
the east.


Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/...
as of 400 am EDT Wednesday...

The underlying theme through the period will be a strong subtropical
ridge anchored over the region. However, a weak front will drift
into the region Thursday and drift very slowly south into the
Carolinas over the weekend. Moisture and warmth will definitely be
on the increase under the upper high. With the front lingering
through the region, there will be some focus for increased
convection, although dynamics aloft are weak at the very best.
Convection that develops will be largely a result of differential
heating, but will tend to focus either near the frontal boundary
or across the mountains. For Thursday, this should be mainly west
of the Blue Ridge, with the focus drifting further south/southeast
with time into Friday and Saturday. Given the pattern and very
weak forcing, cannot support more than 20-30% pops at this time,
with areas east of the Blue Ridge overall seeing the least likely
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should be non-
severe, quite spotty in nature, and limited in duration.

With respect to temperatures, 850mb temps will continue to hover
in the +15c range for Thursday, but jump into the +20c to +21c
range for the remainder of the period. This will result in surface
temps reaching the lower 90s again across the Piedmont and well
into the 80s west of the Blue Ridge Friday and Saturday. These
readings are well above normal.


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
as of 430 am EDT Wednesday...

Will certainly need to keep an eye on the tropics as we head into
next week with the Atlantic Basin/Gulf becoming quite active as
several disturbances in the inter-tropical convergence zone drift west from African across
the tropical Atlantic and into the Caribbean and Gulf. Models are
at considerable odds with respect to tracks and intensity and with
yet no consistency from run-to-run, so have not introduced any
indication of tropical weather in this period at this time.
However, several models suggest that eventually one or more
tropical systems will drift into or develop in the western
Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. At any rate, it would appear that
if a tropical system were to impact the rnk cwa, it would be
beyond this period anyway.

For much of the period strong high pressure aloft is progged to
remain over the region. Another weak cold front will drift into
the region from the north late in the weekend, with the original
front washing out across the Carolinas. The proximity of the
fronts and strong insolation along with abundant low-level
moisture will continue to support widely scattered diurnal
convection, either focused near the frontal boundary or across the
mountains. Really no significant change in sensible weather during
this period with temperatures well above normal, especially low
temperatures. Expect minimum temperatures to average 10-15 degrees
above normal with maximum temperatures about 5-7 degrees above


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the taf valid period
as high pressure drifts slowly east across the region and high
pressure aloft builds over the area. The only exception will be
patchy early morning fog, which so far has only really been an
issue at klwb, but could occur at bcb/lyh as low level airmass
moistens back up. Any fog will be gone between 12-14z Thursday.

Any showers this afternoon are expected to stay over the NC
mountains and foothills.

Extended aviation discussion...

Richer moisture will work its way north Thursday into western
parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible across the mountains,
but for the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail.

On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly
some storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of
MVFR conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger
showers or storms.

The front lingers in the area during the weekend keeping enough
moisture for diurnal mountain showers and storms when periods of
MVFR could occur.

Monday high pressure bubbles in but still a very humid airmass to
keep isolated storms around in the afternoon, but mainly VFR.


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...kk/wp
short term...rab
long term...ds/rab

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