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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia
213 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

tight pressure gradient situated between low pressure just
southeast of Long Island, and high pressure over the Midwest will
keep gusty winds around through Saturday. This high will move
southeast Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front will cross
through the mid Atlantic region on Monday.


Near term /through today/...
as of 1125 PM EDT Wednesday...

Majority of the area getting winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
20-25 mph. Exceptions are a few gusts over 30 mph in the higher
elevations, mainly above 3000 ft. As such will leave Wind Advisory
mainly due to the fact that a couple more shortwaves will pass
across late tonight and could enhance the winds once they exit.
There will be a continuation of scattered showers across the
mountains of WV into portions of southwest Virginia and northwest
North Carolina. As the wave over northern Kentucky passes late, the
showers will weaken and end, but as colder air continues to advect
in some snowflakes will occur in western Greenbrier and the NC
mountains above 4000 ft. Already had a report earlier this evening
of snowflakes on beech mtn NC.

No other major changes to the late evening update.

Previous valid discussion...

Western upslope areas will be gradually clearing out Saturday
morning, which will limit heating. Again, mav numbers looked


Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
as of 330 PM EDT Friday...

The low amplitude upper pattern is not very progressive as the closed
low over New England slides up into eastern Canada and keeps a broad
trof over the northeast as a ridge develops over The Rockies. Aside
from some lingering clouds west of the Blue Ridge Saturday night, this
pattern will keep fair weather with breezy conditions in the tight
pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeast and low
pressure under the closed low through Sunday.

A surge of short wave energy will spill over the ridge and push a weak
low from the Great Lakes region late Sunday to off the mid Atlantic
coast by Monday morning. This will initiate another round of strong
gusty winds Sunday night and send a plume of low level moisture into
the region from the northwest. This will result in a good amount of
clouds west of the Blue Ridge and maybe some upslope rain showers for
the western slopes late Sunday night into Monday.

With surface high pressure over the southeast giving US west to
southwest winds, warmer temperatures will start making their way into
the region and highs on Sunday will be seasonably in the 60s, a bit
cooler on Monday west of the Blue Ridge as cooler air starts filtering


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 330 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will move in from the upper Midwest and bring fair
weather with slightly below normal temperatures to the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. The high will then take up a wedge position east
of the Appalachians as a vigorous short wave amplifies and drops out of
the upper Midwest. This looks to bring a chance of precipitation back
to our forecast for Thursday with some additional upslope precipitation
west of the Blue Ridge lingering into Friday.

Temperatures will generally be near seasonal norms through the


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 200 am EDT Saturday...

MVFR cigs will persist in the mountains through Saturday morning
before improving. East of the mountains, cloud bases mainly VFR.
Radar continues to indicate some very light precipitation along
the western slopes of the WV/Virginia Highlands. Appears to be drizzle
at the surface with some reports of IFR vsbys. This activity is
expected to diminish after daybreak.

Pressure gradient will continue to result in gusty northwest winds
through Saturday with surface gusts of 20-30 kts. Winds are
expected to subside Saturday night.

Some lingering moisture will persist across the WV mountains
into Saturday night, cloud bases 3-5kft. East of the Blue Ridge
skies will become clear.

Extended aviation discussion...

Sunday through Monday...widespread VFR. No flight restrictions.
High pressure building in over the Tennessee Valley then southeast
United States will result in lighter wind speeds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...potential for River Valley fog in the
mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14z each
morning, otherwise widespread VFR.


Rnk watches/warnings/advisories...
Virginia...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for vaz009-012>020-022>024.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for ncz001-002-018.


Synopsis...air mass
near term...ams/wp
short term...mbs
long term...mbs

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