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000 
FXUS61 KRNK 231440
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
940 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to move east across the region. It 
will usher in colder temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and 
mountain snow showers this afternoon and continue into Wednesday. 
Temperatures will moderate to above normal again later in the week 
before the next frontal system arrives during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EST Tuesday...

Wind advisory remains in effect across the high elevations this
afternoon until 10 am Wednesday. 

Decreased pops for this morning with KFCX WSR-88D showing that
rain has exited forecast area. Decided to slow the arrival of
the upslope precipitation on the western slopes as supported by
Highres model solutions. Modified temperatures with the latest 
surface obs and trends, then shaped towards GLAMP for late
morning into this afternoon. Used a non-diurnal temperature 
curve with cold advection. More changes later this morning...

As of 450 AM EST Tuesday...

997 mb surface low over northern Michigan trails a frontal 
occlusion/Pacific front across central WV into roughly the I-77 
corridor early this morning. This boundary best shows itself as a 
wind shift from south to west-southwest/west. Parent upper level low 
currently per water vapor imagery is spiraling east-northeast across 
IL/IN. 

This frontal system will lead to a relatively active 24 hour period 
with ongoing heavy showers early this morning in the Piedmont, 
falling temperatures today/tonight, a surge of northwest winds along 
the Blue Ridge this afternoon and tonight and potential minor 
accumulations of snow tonight continuing into the Wednesday 
timeframe.  

Primary cold front and dry slot aloft moves eastward through the 
morning hours per the GFS. This will lead to a west to east rather 
rapid decrease in PoPs along with clearing skies except in the 
western mountains. By early afternoon, most of the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area should see at least partly sunny skies. 
Falling 850 mb temperatures should also result through today, with 
most areas west of the foothills having already seen their high 
temperature occur overnight. Would expect any additional rains 
amounting up to 0.15" in the far eastern Piedmont counties. By 
afternoon, temperatures should range from the mid 30s in the far 
west to the lower 50s in southeastern counties. 

In terms of wind headlines, have opted to cancel the Wind Advisory 
for the south/southwest winds that was in effect until 6 AM for our 
far southwestern mountains. However, have opted to issue a impact 
based wind advisory in effect from 1 PM today until 10 AM Wednesday 
from the Blue Ridge from Roanoke to Watauga County. Will see winds 
also flip to west and eventually northwest by mid to late this 
morning. These should become at least breezy by early afternoon as 
cold advection aloft steepens lapse rates. Based on GFS/MAV 
guidance, local research wind guidance indicates only marginal Wind 
Advisory criteria for Roanoke and Boone, with the highest pressure 
rises anticipated to occur around 4 pm to around midnight, while the 
core of the northwesterly low level jet of around 50 kts looks to 
occur after 7pm into early Wednesday morning timeframe. Generally 
think peak wind gusts of around 50-55 mph should occur between 6 pm 
and 3 am, and continuing to diminish into the Wednesday morning 
period. Appears too marginal north of Roanoke and have opted to hold 
on further extension per collaboration with NWS Sterling. 

And then there's upslope snow to talk about. Cold advection and 
enhanced northwest flow will again favor a changeover from rain to 
mountain upslope snow showers from western Greenbrier County 
southward into Watauga County. Changeover should occur by late this 
afternoon in southeast West Virginia and toward early evening from 
Grayson through Watauga County. Though flurries or light snow 
showers may at times advance to the New River Valley, simulated 
reflectivity from most SPC HREF members suggests any accumulating 
snows would be in southeast West Virginia, Tazewell County VA and 
Ashe/Watauga Counties in NC. Snow accumulations through 12z 
Wednesday should add up to between 1-2 inches, greatest in western 
Greenbrier County. Additional accumulations are expected into 
Wednesday as well. 

Low temperatures tonight range from around the mid 30s in the 
Piedmont/foothills, to the upper 20s/around 30 west of the Blue 
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EST Tuesday...

The deep low pressure area moving through the Great Lakes today
will be moving rapidly northeast away from the area early
Wednesday. At 12Z Wednesday, it is expected to already be in the
eastern Canadian provinces. This will allow winds to begin to
diminish and thus the Wind Advisory is slated to end at 15Z or
10 AM EST. Unlike the first two weeks of January, the upper flow
will remain progressive and essentially zonal as this low
pressure area departs. We will see a quick shot of colder air
with 850mb temperatures dropping into the -8C to -10C range
which will equate to lows in the 20s. Temperatures are not low
enough at this point for wind chills to be a concern. Upslope
snow showers across the Alleghanys will linger into Wednesday 
morning, with generally 1-2 inch accumulations western
Greenbrier, less elsewhere in the west.

Given that the flow is fairly progressive and zonal, the next
upper short wave, a fairly weak one, will move into the region
let Wed or Wed night, a psuedo Alberta Clipper type system. The
main dynamics are across the Great Lakes and moisture is
limited. However, it will provide just enough dynamics to
enhance upslope snow showers across the Alleghanys where another
1-2 inches of snow is possible by Thursday morning. This short
wave will quickly exit the region later Thursday as a short wave
ridge in the central U.S. moves into the eastern U.S. for
Friday.

Wednesday and Thursday will be on the cool side, but actually
really close to normals for this time of year. Look for lows
mainly from near 20 west to near 30 east. Maximum temperatures
will range from the 40s in the west to the 50s in the east.
These are within a few degrees of normal for mid-January, but
about 20-30 degrees warmer than we were much of the first half
of January!

Friday as the upper ridge approaches and 850mb temperatures
surge back above zero, to perhaps as warm as +8C, look for
surface temperatures to warm into the 50s west and 60s east,
about 10 degrees above normal.

Other than the upslope snow showers, little meaningful
precipitation is expected during this period leaving monthly
precipitation totals a bit below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 450 AM EST Tuesday...

As we move into the weekend, the next in the series of short
waves within a continued progressive upper flow will move from
the Midwest into the eastern U.S. The ECMWF suggest that this
could be a decent liquid precipitation maker for the forecast
area as the system becomes more amplified as it moves into the
eastern U.S., and low pressure develops off the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast, while the GFS is much weaker, faster and less 
excited bringing about just brief period of showers. WPC seems 
to be favoring the slower ECMWF, which brings a general 1-2 
inches of rainfall to the area in the Sun-Mon time frame.

Little concern about winter weather with the weekend/early next
week system as 850mb temperatures remain above 0C for several
days, topping out in the +8C to +10C range as the front
approaches Sun-Mon.

Given the differences in the intensity and timing between the
ECMWF and the GFS, the degree of cold air that follows int the
wake of this frontal system early next week and the amount of
post frontal upslope snow showers will largely depend on which
solution verifies. For now, will carry snow showers across just
the Alleghanys following frontal passage Sunday night into
Monday. 850mb temperatures fall back toward -8C per the ECMWF,
but barely reach 0C per GFS with a flatter, more zonal flow.

At any rate, temperatures for the remainder of January will
hover much closer to normal than the first two weeks did, with
essentially equal periods of moderately above and moderately
below normal. It could be said that the temperature variability
will likely be greater than the degree above/below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 601 AM EST Tuesday...

TAFs continue to be impacted by degraded flight categories and low-
level wind shear early this morning. Though rain showers have all 
but come to an end, in its wake has been areas of mist or light 
ground fog. Roanoke has recently seen VLIFR fog as winds have gone 
calm. Would expect any fog or mist to be rather temporary, lasting a 
couple hrs at most as frontal wind shift introduces an enhancement 
to west winds helping to mix out the fog. As this front passes, 
should see ceilings improve along the Blue Ridge eastward to VFR 
levels. Winds veer west-southwest to west-northwest to 6-10 kts by 
late morning.

Though still will be contending with VFR/MVFR stratus at Lewisburg 
and Bluefield, main impact to the rest of the TAFs through today 
will be gusty post-frontal northwest winds. Wind gusts between 20-27 
kts are forecast during the afternoon, with gusts lingering into the 
evening at Roanoke. Should see renewed upslope MVFR snow showers 
later tonight at Bluefield later tonight with ceilings lowering to 
IFR/MVFR here, with VFR/MVFR stratus at Lewisburg. Otherwise, 
generally VFR indicated after 00z rest of the TAFs. 


Extended Discussion...

Look for gradual improvement to VFR with any residual northwest wind 
gusts abating by Wednesday night. High pressure then builds into the 
region late Wednesday night through Friday night with VFR all 
terminals. Next chance at sub-VFR is later in the weekend with a 
frontal system moves across the region.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 940 AM EST Tuesday...

NOAA Weather Radio, WXL60 (Roanoke Transmitter) which 
broadcasts at 162.475 MHz remains off the air. The phone company
reported that the circuit line had been cut and is being worked
on. Some of the repairs have been completed, however more items
remain. We are told it was a fiber optic line, so it is taking 
some time to repair.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday 
     for VAZ015>017-022.
NC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Wednesday 
     for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AL

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