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fxus61 krlx 251953 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Synopsis...
turning colder for the rest of this weekend. Warmer with upper
level disturbances and rain showers next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 115 PM Saturday...

Cold front will continue to move east and out of the area late
this afternoon. Rain showers will exit as well. Much colder air
is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with temperatures dipping
into the 20s over much of the area...with some teens in the
colder valleys of the northern mountains. H500 trof will swing
through tonight. This will keep the chance for snow showers or
flurries with brisk west-northwest winds in the forecast for upslope areas
of our eastern mountains overnight tonight. High pressure
quickly builds over the area tomorrow bringing plenty of
sunshine, but much cooler temperatures.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
as of 235 PM Saturday...

High confidence in the first half of the short term forecast
with cool and dry high pressure centered over the region. Clouds
will be on the increase on Monday as a warm front lifts
northward through West Virginia. During the day Monday we should
remain mostly dry. Model guidance is spitting out some light quantitative precipitation forecast
for Monday, however low levels are quite dry and quantitative precipitation forecast may be a
bit overdone. Current thinking is that we may see a few
sprinkles and virga during the day and for now I decided to just
go with slight chance to low chance pop in the forecast. With
the cloud cover, we will see low temps much warmer Monday night
as most areas should remain in the low 40s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
as of 240 PM Saturday...

Not much changes from the previous forecast. Very warm
conditions once again for the area as we head into the middle of
the week under deep southwesterly flow. However, flow amplifies
with deep upper trough starting to dig over the central U.S.
Late Wednesday and progressing east through the remainder of the
period.

Guidance shows intense low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes and driving a strong cold front across the area Thursday.
This will continue our roller coaster weather as temperatures
turn much colder for the end of the work week with possibly some
snow on tap for next Friday.

&&

Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/...
as of 115 PM Saturday...

Cold front over the eastern mountains of WV will continue to
move eastward and exit the region this afternoon. Showers
associated with it will exit as well. Upper level trof will
swing through tonight. This will keep mainly MVFR cigs over
northern portions of the area from a line from pkb to ekn and
areas north. VFR cigs south. Winds the rest of this afternoon
will continue out of the west-northwest between 10-15kts gusting to 25kts
the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. Brief MVFR/IFR
vsbys in snow showers are possible over the northern WV
mountains overnight.

High pressure builds in across the region early Sunday morning
from west to east. VFR cigs and diminishing winds will be the norm
during the day on Sunday.



Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Sunday...



Forecast confidence: medium to high.

Alternate scenarios: timing of MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys may vary
overnight.



Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1hrly 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h M h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h l l M
ekn consistency h h h M h h h M M M h M
pkb consistency h h M M h h M h h h h M
ckb consistency h h M h M h l M M h M l

After 18z Sunday...
no widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

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