Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 240112
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
912 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017
remnants of Cindy and a cold front to provide rounds of heavy
rain into tonight. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper
level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.
Near term /through Saturday/...
as of 912 PM Friday...
Latest radar mosaic shows the center of the remains of Cindy
were moving across eastern Kentucky. A large area of showers
with embedded storms had spread across much of our forecast
area. Have received reports of water issues with this precip.
In addition, have received a few reports of trees down with some
of the stronger storms.
Only real change that I have made was to lower the chances of
thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Otherwise, forecast is
generally on track.
As of 230 PM Friday...
Models have the remnants of Cindy riding up along a cold front
that will move east southeast across the area later this
afternoon and tonight. The aforementioned systems and
associated precip will exit the mountains for the most part
prior to dawn Saturday morning. Mid level dry slot and breaks in
the clouds over NE KY and much of WV, well ahead of the
aforementioned systems, will continue to generate scattered
showers and isolated storms this afternoon and evening in the
tropical like atmosphere ahead of Cindy. Pw's above 2 inches.
Looking for the main organized band of heavy convection,
associated with Cindy and the cold front, to first move across
southeast Ohio and northwest WV this afternoon, then shifting
eastward with the system later afternoon and tonight. Some of
the storms may be severe, with mainly damaging winds, over the
northwestern half of the area this afternoon and evening as the
leading edge of the main band arrives. Inserted mention of heavy
rain. Otherwise, clouds will tend fill in with heating this
afternoon. Flash Flood Watch continues til 6 am Saturday
morning, along with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the
northwest half of the area til 10 PM this evening.
For Saturday, with the precip gone early and clouds decreasing,
expect a cooler and dry day with brisk west to northwest winds.
However, with the increased sunshine adn drier air, temperatures
will be similar to Friday.
As of 600 am Friday...
Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary attm.
As of 345 am Friday...
Deep southwest flow will bring moisture associated with Tropical
Depression Cindy to the area through tonight. Models show high
dewpoints...in the upper 60s...and pwats reaching 2 inches
suggest showers and storms could produce heavy rain. Available
moisture, diurnal heating, deep layered shear exceeding 50 knots
and sfc cape values exceeding 2000 j/kg mainly along the Ohio
River suggest some storms could produce damaging winds and
periods of heavy rain. The freezing level is about 15 kft.
Therefore the threat for large hail is low.
Storm Prediction Center have portions of southeast Ohio and WV and northeast Kentucky in a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect for the entire County Warning Area until 6 am Saturday.
Tonight, the remaining circulation associated with Cindy will be
passing over the forecast area. Meanwhile, a cold front will push
east reinforcing instability and moisture. Very heavy rain is more
Total quantitative precipitation forecast of near one inch is forecast across southeast OH, and
decrease towards the east. Tonight, the rainfall axis shifts to
the east diagonally across central WV with a quantitative precipitation forecast maxima of 2
inches across northeast KY, and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere.
Overall, in the next 24 hours can expect a widespread 1.5 to 3
inches with locally heavy amounts through tonight.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...
as of 225 PM Friday...
High pressure will result in dry weather into Sunday.
A cold front should sweep across portions of the region Monday
into Monday night bring a chance of showers and storms.
Temps will remain below normal through the period.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 225 PM Friday...
Cool high pressure will build in on Tuesday bringing rain
chances to an end.
Below normal temps should prevail Tuesday into Wednesday before
southerly winds result in near normal readings for the remainder
of the region.
Another system approaching the region from the northwest will
result in increasing chances for showers and storms beginning on
Thursday which should continue into Friday.
Aviation /01z Saturday through Wednesday/...
00z Saturday thru 00z Sunday...
as of 755 PM Friday...
Latest radar mosaic shows circulation associated the remains of
Cindy was pushing east across portions of eastern Kentucky. A
large area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms with
MVFR..LCL IFR...isold LIFR...conditions extended from eastern
Kentucky northeast across southeast Ohio and the northwest half
of West Virginia.
This area of showers and isold storms with the IFR or worse
conditions should spread east across the entire region through
07z. A cold front currently moving southeast toward the area
will push southeast overnight...before exiting the region aft
10z. As the front pushes southeast...expect the precipitation
should come to an end with conditions slowly improving.
By 15z...expect VFR conditions should prevail across the entire
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: medium through 06z...low afterwards.
Alternate scenarios: timing and duration of MVFR/IFR conditions
may vary from forecast.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 06/24/17
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency M M M h M l l l l l l l
heights consistency l M M l h l l l l l M l
bkw consistency h h M h M l l l M M h l
ekn consistency h M M h h l M M M M l l
pkb consistency M M l l l l l l l l M l
ckb consistency M M M M M M l l M l l l
After 00z Sunday...
IFR possible in River Valley fog Saturday night.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 am EDT Saturday for wvz005>011-
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch until 6 am EDT Saturday for ohz066-067-075-
Kentucky...Flash Flood Watch until 6 am EDT Saturday for kyz101>103-105.
Virginia...Flash Flood Watch until 6 am EDT Saturday for vaz003-004.