Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 241013
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
513 am EST Sat Feb 24 2018
nearly stationary front meanders about the area into Sunday, as
surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into
the weekend. The front finally charges through on Sunday.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 300 am Saturday...
A frontal boundary will remain across the area today as a wave
brings an area of showers. Much of the area should then go into
a lull later this afternoon and early this evening as the front
pushes north of the area. Showers will return later tonight as a
cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the
highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern
West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to
previous runs. Will continue the Flood Watch as the ground is
saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday night/...
as of 345 am Saturday...
The cold front will cross Sunday, taking the wet weather with
it. A few storms are possible with fropa, particularly in the
afternoon across the mountains. We are hopeful that the trends
in less qpf with this system will come to fruition, which would
lower expected crests on the Ohio early next week.
Drier air will work in behind the front for early next week,
though temperatures will continue to run well above normal
during the day.
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
as of 350 am Saturday...
The lull in active weather will be short lived as another rain
maker moves through late week. It will mild through the week.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 505 am Saturday...
Areas receiving rain overnight have developed patchy dense fog.
A wave will move along a cold front today providing numerous
showers over the region.
The front will gradually lift northward this evening, providing
improving conditions. Showers in advance of a cold front will
then move in from the west later tonight.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Sunday...
Forecast confidence: low.
Alternate scenarios: timing and intensity of restrictions could
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Sat 02/24/18
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency M M M M M l M M M M l l
heights consistency h h M M l l l h M M l M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h l l
ekn consistency h h h h l h h M h M l l
pkb consistency h h M M M M M M l l l l
ckb consistency h h M l l M M M M M M l
After 12z Sunday...
IFR possible at times in showers Sunday.
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for wvz005>011.
Ohio...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ohz066-067-075-076-
Kentucky...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for kyz101>103-105.