Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 250119
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
919 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances
possibly providing a few light showers. Dry midweek under high
pressure. Progressive pattern takes hold late in week.
Near term /through Sunday/...
as of 920 PM Saturday...
Minor flooding continues across portions of southeast Ohio and NE
Kentucky. The water is receding in many locations and flooding
issues have ended in some locations. However, the little
Muskingum River at Bloomfield and the tygarts creek near Greenup
continue to run high and some roads continue to remain closed.
The water levels should continue to fall overnight.
Latest radar from krlx shows a line of showers extends from
near Elkins southwest to near Charleston. Not sure how much of
this precipitation is reaching the ground as none of the
stations where the line passed over have reported any rain. Have
introduced a light chance of showers across northeast parts of
our forecast area for the next few hours.
Otherwise, only made some minor tweaks to reflect current
As of 130 PM Saturday...
minor flooding continues across parts of southeast Ohio and NE
Kentucky, however in most areas water is receding and flooding
issues should continue to dwindle.
A broad upper level trough moving through the western Great
Lakes will provide mild and mainly dry weather this weekend.
Models do show a couple weak 500mb ripples moving through
tonight and Sunday. Kept pops dry, but did include some
additional clouds. High and low temperatures will run generally
5-7 degrees cooler than normal for late June.
Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...
as of 200 PM Saturday...
Cooler and drier in the short term period as upper shortwave
trough and surface high pressure remain in control. Could be a
few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday
as the upper trough pushes farther south into the region, but
most areas should remain dry.
Temperatures during the period actually look to be below normal.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
as of 200 PM Saturday...
High pressure will rebuild into the region mid week, for a
return of dry and warm weather. However, a progressive pattern
will take hold for the remainder of the period, along with
increasing heat and humidity once again, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming more numerous again as the week
Aviation /01z Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 725 PM Saturday...
Diurnal clouds have begun to dissipate VFR cumulus. Expect
additional clouds should develop around 06z as a mid-level
system approaches the region from the west.
Depending on the amount of clouds that develop, we could see
some River Valley fog early Sunday morning. Latest guidance
suggests IFR or lower conditions will develop at ekn. However,
confidence in these conditions is not very high. So have gone
with some MVFR conditions at that location and nearby.
Any fog and lower clouds that develop overnight should begin to
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Believe diurnal clouds should
once again develop after 15z.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Monday...
Forecast confidence: medium.
Alternate scenarios: fog formation tonight may be more
widespread -- or not occur at all due to clouds.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date sun 06/25/17
UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h M M M l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
After 00z Monday...
IFR possible in River Valley fog early Monday morning.