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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1001 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday
into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday.


Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1000 am Thursday...

An increase in coverage of showers has occurred which resulted in
upping the pops through the morning and early afternoon.

As of 255 am Thursday...

Some light precipitation moving across parts of Ohio this morning,
with warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure, currently
centered across northern Illinois/in, in place. Models having a
difficult time depicting this precipitation this morning, so
generally tried to base morning pops off radar trends, with better
chances across northern southeast Ohio and northern WV zones.

Focus then shifts to a cold front that will push east into the
region later today as the aforementioned low moves north and east
into the Great Lakes region. Cold front should enter southeast
Ohio zones by early to mid afternoon, and exit to the east of the
County Warning Area late this evening. Out ahead of the front and behind, expect
gusty southwesterly to westerly winds to develop, along with
-shra. There could be a rumble of thunder later this afternoon,
with best chances across the north and east. In addition, plenty
of low cloud cover behind the front, which should linger for at
least much of the evening/night, particularly across the higher
terrain/eastern counties. In addition, could even see a
transition over to -dz later this evening behind the front,
particularly across eastern zones. Some partial clearing is
possible late tonight across parts of southeast Ohio and WV lowlands.

Much cooler air will filter in behind the front tonight, with the
coolest temperatures across the higher terrain counties, and
southeast Ohio zones. At this point, not expecting any frost or
freeze headlines, with the expectation of some light wind
continuing for at least the first half of the night, although
winds should decrease particularly across western zones late
as high pressure builds in from the west.


Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
as of 305 am Thursday...

Models show sfc high pressure under zonal flow at h500 without any
shortwave running through. Under southwest flow at the sfc and h850
temps reaching 12c, expect dry weather with above normal
temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

Used a blend of models for temperatures through the period.


Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
as of 305 PM Thursday...

Despite of uncertainty in the extended periods, like the idea of
the GFS model with a clipper like features passing north of the
area Saturday and Sunday. Coded higher pops Saturday and Saturday
night with an associated cold front. Trended drier the rest of the


Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 640 am Thursday...

Mainly VFR to start, however, a cold front, along with sct -shra
and isold -tsra will affect the area today. Out ahead of, and
behind the frontal boundary, southwesterly winds will develop and
strengthen, with gusts up to 22 kts expected across The Lowlands,
with higher gusts of up to 30 kts across the higher terrain. Bulk
of gusty winds will die off after 22z.

Expect low VFR or brief MVFR conditions in vcnty of precipitation.
However, behind the front, expect widespread MVFR cigs to develop
from west to east, mainly after 18z. Some clearing to VFR mainly
across southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky after 03-06z, however,
MVFR cigs will continue to linger, particularly along and east of
a line from kcrw to kckb for much of the taf period.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Friday...

Forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of gusty winds or MVFR conditions
later today may vary from forecast.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h M M M
heights consistency h h h h h h M l M l l l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h M l l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h M l M l
pkb consistency h h h h h M h h h M M l
ckb consistency h h h h h h h M M l M M

After 12z Friday...
areas of IFR possible late Thursday night/early Friday across the
mountains in low ceilings.


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...arj
long term...arj

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