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fxus61 krlx 301741 
afdrlx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Synopsis...
a warm front lifts through tonight, followed by a cold front
late tonight into Friday. High pressure prevails Sunday. Next
system arrives Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Near term /through Friday/...
as of 140 PM Thursday...

On the latest weather map, an area of low pressure was located
over the mid-Mississippi Valley with a warm front extending east
across West Virginia to the southeast Atlantic coast. A cold
front extends south into the Gulf of Mexico.

The warm front is resulting in a few showers and storms across
portions of Ohio and West Virginia at this time.

The warm front should lift northeast tonight as the low pressure
system moves to the Great Lakes by Friday morning. In addition,
the cold front is expected to push into our western
counties.

Storm Prediction Center has the western half of our forecast area in marginal risk
with our much of our Kentucky counties in slight risk.

Expect the showers and storms associated with the warm front to
life northeast with the warm front. Showers and storms should
then spread into our region from the west. Expect the coverage
with these storms to increase after midnight.

Models indicate sufficient wind shear will be in place across
our southeast Ohio counties this evening. However, instability
will be marginal with mixed layer cape values generally at or
below 1000 j/kg.

The storms associated with the cold front could be severe to
our west. However, the storms should be weakening by the time
they push into our western counties. Storms could still be quite
strong to even marginally severe into tonight.

In addition, any of the stronger storms could produce heavy
rainfall. Do not expect any water issues. However, we will have
to keep an eye out for any storms that move across the same
areas for potential water issues.

The storms should then overspread the remainder of the region
after sunrise on Friday. The upper level low, associated with
the surface feature, will push east during the day, keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast.

&&

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...
as of 400 am Thursday...

A strong system exits the area Friday though not before
squeezing out at least a 1/2" of qpe area wide. A few wrap
around showers linger into Saturday. Otherwise high pressure
builds through Sunday night.

&&

Long term /Monday through Wednesday/...
as of 400 am Thursday...

The next system approaches Monday and crosses late Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure builds again Wednesday. The active
weather pattern continues with no end in sight. A little
hesitant to add details as run to run consistency is poor on
low pressure tracks, but good on general pattern recognition.

&&

Aviation /17z Thursday through Monday/...
as of 130 PM Thursday...

With the exception of MVFR conditions along the eastern slope
of the mountain and near some isolated storms across our
northern counties, VFR conditions are common across the
remainder of the area.

More widespread showers and storms will begin moving in late
tonight with MVFR to IFR visibilities likely. Expect conditions
to deteriorate from the west after 08 UTC.

Wind will generally be gusty from the southeast to S through 14 UTC
Friday before becoming southwesterly.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Friday...

Forecast confidence: high through 06 UTC, then moderate
afterwards.

Alternate scenarios: timing of showers and storms this evening
into Friday may vary.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h M

After 18z Friday...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$

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