Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 241111
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
611 am EST Fri Nov 24 2017
high pressure provides dry weather today into tonight. A cold
front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday.
Milder through next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 610 am Friday...
Made some minor updates to temperatures this morning based on
current obs and trends.
As of 1230 am Friday...
Quiet day expected today with mostly sunny conditions as high
pressure gradually drifts east. Stayed on the higher side of
the guidance envelope today for high, with generally 50s to
around 60 degrees.
Fairly weak system approaches tonight. Have clouds on the
increase, with some low end pops arriving prior to sunrise
across the northwestern part of the forecast area. Southerly
winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer, but low
spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. This makes the low
forecast a bit tough, ended up a degree or so warming across the
west, and a bit cooler east where the clouds will arrive later.
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
as of 230 am Friday...
Weak cold front passes Friday night/Saturday morning providing
a reinforcement to more fall like temperatures for the end of
the weekend, but this will be the last cooler push of air for a
while. Scattered showers expected, possibly changing to light
non accumulating snow above 3000ft. High pressure then moves
back into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians for
the beginning of the work week.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
as of 230 am Friday...
Colder air stays well to the north for the extended forecast
with heights moving back towards 570dkm and 850hpa temperatures
in the upper single digits. Mild weather will dominate through
mid week before the next chance for an airmass change arrives
Aviation /11z Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 1230 am Friday...
High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place with generally
clear skies through the taf period. Clouds will be on the
increase tonight as a weak system approaches from the west.
Low level flow becomes southwesterly today, and then more
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
Forecast confidence: high.
Alternate scenarios: none.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date Friday 11/24/17
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
After 12z Saturday...
no widespread IFR conditions expected.