Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
143 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
high pressure mid week. An organized system crosses late in the
Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 130 PM Monday...
Post frontal stratocu in abundance across the area as cold air advection aloft
commences. It will be a chilly night tonight and with high
pressure trying to nose in from the northwest, frost possibilities
arise. However, as if often the case around these parts, nothing
is never clear cut. There is considerable concern for stratocu to
linger across the northern WV mountains and adjacent lowland
counties overnight in northwest flow. This is backed up by various
model soundings including hrrr low level profile. Experience
warrants this concern and thus frost may be mitigated across
aforementioned locations. Further to the south and west, this
should not be much of a concern so that areas of frost are likely
across portions of southeast Ohio and central WV with patchy frost
across the cold spots in northeast Kentucky and elsewhere. After
coordination with surrounding offices, elected to hoist a frost
advisory for most of southeast Ohio and extending east into central
WV, while leaving out the mountains for the above reasoning.
Tuesday is shaping up to be a stellar autumn day with just some
passing high clouds as temps run a little below normal for this
time of year, mainly across the north.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...
as of 324 am Monday...
High pressure builds overhead Monday night, when mostly clear skies
and cold temperatures will allow for frost possible across the
forecast area. Additional frost will be possible Tuesday night. It
is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the
sheltered mountain valleys.
Winds will be around 5 mph from the north northwest. Most sections
will see clearing through the day. A low pressure system move over
the Ohio Valley and WV Thursday morning. Likely pops across the north
and high chance across the rest of the area. Pops gradually diminish
Thursday night into Friday.
Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
as of 323 am Monday...
High pressure takes control once again on Friday with dry
conditions. Another low pressure system drives a cold front to the
region by Sunday morning. Coded likely pops mainly north and
northeast mountains and high chance for the rest of the areal. Used
a blend of models ensembles for temperatures and dewpoints through
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
as of 130 PM Monday...
Gusty northwest winds around 20 kts will continue thru 21z before
subsiding. Post frontal stratus will dissipate across southern
terminals this evening but linger most of the night for the
northern sites to include kekn and kckb, but should continue to
remain VFR. This should mitigate fog at ekn overnight. Guidance
indicates enough of a dewpoint spread to mitigate fog elsewhere
and with the lack of a strong low level inversion, have left fog
out elsewhere as well.
Tuesday will feature a light northwest flow aloft and north flow
at the surface. Just some passing high clouds are expected.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 18z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium tonight and high tomorrow.
Alternate scenarios: should stratus dissipate overnight, then
dense fog is likely at kekn.
Experimental table of flight category
objectively shows consistency of weather forecast office forecast to available model
information: h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but
one model. M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with
models. L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one
UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency M l M h h h h h h h M M
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h M M
ekn consistency l l l l h h h h h h M M
pkb consistency l l M M h h h h h h M M
ckb consistency M M M M h h h h h h M M
After 18z Tuesday...
IFR in valley fog possible Wednesday mornings.
WV...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for wvz008>011-
Ohio...frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am EDT Tuesday for ohz066-067-