Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 krlx 271421
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
921 am EST Mon Feb 27 2017
warmer weather moving in with a strong cold front expected
Near term /through tonight/...
as of 920 am Monday...
No changes needed to the near term forecast. Light rain is
moving into the area across northwestern zones as expected.
As of 610 am Monday...
Have increased pops across the northwest half of the area this
morning per radar trends. Still, any quantitative precipitation forecast will be quite light.
As of 240 am Monday...
This will be a transition period toward warmer and unsettled
weather. Models in very good agreement on an upper disturbance
lifting a weak warm front northward across the area today.
Models actually split the energy with this upper feature as it
approaches, with one piece tracking mainly across the north
portion of the area, and a second piece tracking south of the
area. This means while clouds will be widespread today across
the area, precip chances will most likely be restricted to the
north. Since the air is initially quite dry, will keep highest
pops in the chance range today up north, and any quantitative precipitation forecast that may
occur would be very light at best. Despite the clouds today,
southerly flow behind the warm front will boost temperatures.
Look for highs today in the lower 50s north to the lower 60s far
For tonight, the upper disturbance and warm front will be north
of the area, but another upper disturbance will approach late
tonight from the southwest. So, we start out dry and bring a
low chance of rain showers late, especially west. With the
clouds and south breeze tonight, low temperatures will only be
Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
as of 320 am Monday...
Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front
and potential water/severe weather threats heading into
Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles,
and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10c. Decent available precipitable water
with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing
the 60f mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at
the potential for a Stout line of storms to roll through with a
low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive
rainfall. From the quantitative precipitation forecast standpoint, the system looks to be
progressive, and should move quickly thru the County Warning Area. Storms would
likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would
certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves
moving south and east with height falls aloft. Storm Prediction Center day 3 has the
whole County Warning Area in the slight risk, and will add this to the severe weather potential statement.
In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in
rain/snow showers Wednesday night.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
as of 320 am Monday...
Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the
temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with
another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow.
Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong
temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal
Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/...
12z Monday thru 12z Tuesday...
As of 615 am Monday...
An upper level disturbance will lift a weak warm front northward
across the area today, with winds becoming southerly 3 to 8 kts.
Today...this disturbance and warm front will bring widespread
clouds, and some light rain showers mainly over southeast Ohio
and northern WV this morning and early afternoon. However, the
low levels are quite dry when this disturbance and warm front
move across, thus, VFR ceilings 4000-10000 feet and visibility at or above 7sm
will generally prevail. The exception may be over southeast
Ohio and northern WV where brief periods of MVFR are possible in
scattered light showers.
Tonight...as one disturbance lifts north of the area by evening,
another will approach toward the end of the period, with a low
chance of a shower in the west by 12z. In any case, expect VFR
conditions with ceilings mainly at or above 10000 feet and light south
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Tuesday...
Forecast confidence: medium to high.
Alternate scenarios: MVFR in the north may be more widespread if
the showers are heavier.
After 12z Tuesday... no widespread IFR conditions are expected
at this time.