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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV
655 am EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Synopsis...
an upper level low begins to drift off to the north today leaving
the area drier. High pressure early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 645 am Saturday...

Radar echoes largely gone as upper low moves off to the north
today. Left low pops in for any residual vort Max induced showers.
Otherwise, areas of fog this morning causing the biggest threat in
the next 24 hours. Fog should dissipate after daybreak with some
lingering high clouds in the west. Seasonable temps.

&&

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
as of 300 am Saturday...

The upper low that has been lingering for the past couple days
finally loses its grip on the region early next week. A shortwave
trough rotates through on Sunday as the upper low drifts away to
the northeast, which could kick off some showers across the County Warning Area.
The best chance will be in the Ohio River valley and
northern/central West Virginia. Otherwise, looking at quite
weather with temperatures near to just above normal.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
as of 245 PM Friday...

The extended begins with upper level ridging taking hold with
temperatures moderating back above normal, particularly for
daytime highs. A trof approaches late week with a cold frontal
passage and a band of shra.

&&

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 650 am Saturday...

Mostly IFR though the come and go variability continues.
Continued with the pessimistic forecast in regard to tafs. VFR
after daybreak or around 15z.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Sunday...

Forecast confidence: low to medium.

Alternate scenarios: coverage and timing of MVFR/IFR fog may vary
from forecast. Amendments likely.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

UTC 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
crw consistency l l M l l h h h h h h h
heights consistency l M l l l M M M M h h h
bkw consistency M l l M M M M h h h h h
ekn consistency l l M M M h h h h h h h
pkb consistency M h l l M M M h h h h h
ckb consistency l l l l M h h h h h h h

After 12z Sunday...
areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...none.
Ohio...none.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...jw/mz/30
near term...jw
short term...mz
long term...30
aviation...jw

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